Rowing Together: Developing Parallel Paths to Stability, Denuclearization, and a Peace Regime on the Korean Peninsula

June 26 – 28, 2013

Jeju, Republic of Korea

Workshop Agenda

June 27, 2013

Opening Remarks

Moon Tae-young (President, JPI)
Weston Konishi (IFPA)
Ruan Zongze (Vice President, CIIS)

Session 1: Paper Presentations (Chair: Weston Konishi, IFPA)

Three participants, representing the three main nations at the conference, provided opening paper presentations focusing on the main themes of the conference discussions in order to kick off the discussion. Paper presenters:

  • Ren Xiao, Fudan University
  • Kim Heungkyu, Sungshin University
  • Scott Snyder, Concil on Foreign Relations

Session 2: Assessing Present North Korea (Chair: Shen Dingli, Fudan University)

How do participants from China, South Korea, and the United States view North Korea after a year-and-a-half of rule under Kim Jong-un? How much has changed under the new leader and how much remains the same? Has the regime become more dangerous or more open to reform? Has the third nuclear test significantly boosted North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and deterrent? Are there new opportunities for engagement? Are there new avenues or channels of cooperation and/or leverage toward the regime under Kim Jong-un? Should specific efforts be undertaken to create such opportunities or channels? Presenters:

  • Yoo Ho-Yeol, Korea University
  • Gordon Flake, Mansfield Foundation
  • Liu Ming, SASS)

Session 3: How to Denuclearize North Korea (Chair: Shi Yinhong, Renmin University)

What are the prospects for a resumption of the six-party talks? Is the six-party talks process permanently dead, or is there a possibility of reviving it in the future? In the absence of the six-party talks, how can the international community — with the United States, China and South Korea at its core — best control North Korea’s nuclear development? Are new mechanisms or non-proliferation regimes necessary? Can existing ones be strengthened? What is necessary to ensure that the Korean Peninsula moves in a direction toward denuclearization over the mid to long term? Presenters:

  • Alan Romberg, Stimson Center
  • Teng Jianqun, CIIS
  • Jun Bong-Geun, IFANS

Session 4: Toward Trust-building and Stability on the Korean Peninsula (Chair: Ralph Cossa, Pacific Forum CSIS)

Barring a dramatic change of behavior in Pyongyang, how should the United States, China and South Korea better manage potential future crises on the peninsula, such as further satellite launches, nuclear tests, and conventional attacks? What are some lessons learned from the past? How can Washington, Beijing and Seoul avoid diverging in the wake of these crises, as has happened in the past? Is there a mechanism or way in which all three governments can ensure that they more or less see eye-to-eye? Is divergence really inevitable? How do we ensure stability both on the peninsula and in the surrounding region? Presenters:

  • Wang Dong, Peking University
  • Choi Jin-Wook, KINU
  • Mark Manyin, CRS

June 28, 2013

Session 5: Toward Trust-building and Stability on the Korean Peninsula (Chair: Ralph Cossa, Pacific Forum CSIS)

What are the future prospects for enhanced trilateral cooperation on peninsular affairs? Are we heading toward greater convergence or divergence in the coming years? What needs to change in order for the three countries to cooperate more effectively? Is China the odd man out, or are the United States and South Korea out of step with evolving realities on the peninsula? What internal dynamics need to happen in order for all three countries to improve trilateral cooperation in controlling North Korean nuclear development? Is a peace regime on the peninsula attainable and, if so, how can China, the United States, and South Korea coordinate their efforts to achieve that goal? Presenters:

  • Kim Hyun-Wook, IFANS
  • John Delury, Yonsei GSIS
  • Tao Xie, Beijing Foreign University

Session 6: Wrap up (Chair: Han Sukhee, Yonsei GSIS)

Concluding Remarks

  • Weston Konishi,IFPA
  • Ruan Zongze, CIIS
  • Moon Tae-young, JPI