Seoul 04/03 agenda

Current state of DPRK brinkmanship: where are we? Where are we
headed?
Forging a coordinated U.S.-ROK-Japanese response under a Roh administration (continuity?, new directions?, potential divergence?, etc.)
Changing perspectives toward the U.S.-ROK alliance, the American
military presence, and Japan’s strategic role
Influences of the war on Iraq on Korea-focused WMD discussions
The views and roles of China, Russia, and other regional players
Overall impact on U.S., ROK, and Japanese responses and priorities

Session 2: Understanding and Meeting the North Korean Challenge

What is the nature of the nuclear and broader WMD challenge currently posed by Pyongyang? Is there a U.S.-ROK and/or trilateral consensus?
How can we best frame the issue(s) so as to facilitate consensus?
What appear to be the North’s primary objectives with regard to nuclear/WMD acquisition? Have these objectives changed or are they likely to? To what extent are they influenced by the nuclear programs of neighboring countries (e.g., Japan, China, the ROK, etc.)?
What of the North’s obligations under the 1992 Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula?
What are the scenarios that we need to worry most about? Reprocessing? Weaponization? Export? Loose nukes in a collapse scenario?
How does the North’s possession of WMD and the means to deliver them impact plans for the defense of the ROK? For the defense of Japan?
How might it shape proliferation incentives within the region?

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Luncheon and Keynote Address

Session 3: New Strategies and Frameworks for Managing WMD Risks and Assuring Stability

Near-term priorities and strategies for engaging the North: What first under what conditions? How do we best balance carrots and sticks (including military options)?
Moving beyond the Agreed Framework for a longer-term and broader solution: is the “grand bargain” approach feasible? What would it entail?
Building on the KEDO structure: Is it desirable? Possible? In what ways?
Can adjustments in the U.S.-ROK and U.S.-Japan alliances help? If so, what are the preferred options?
Strengthening and expanding the TCOG process: What could be done to make it work better? To widen its focus? To improve its capacity to cope with future crises?
How might multilateral structures help facilitate and/or implement new
agreements with the North?

Coffee Break

Session 4: Coordinating Priorities and Policies for the Way Ahead

Identifying U.S., ROK, and Japanese priorities and capabilities with
regard to WMD risk reduction on the Peninsula
Clarifying bilateral, trilateral, and broader regional strategies for staunching proliferation on the Peninsula and beyond
Reassessing the roles of regional/multilateral and international organizations
Preparing for potential “wild cards” along the way (e.g., nuclear incident in the North, additional DPRK missile launches, transfer of weapons-grade material from Pyongyang to a third party, etc.)
Understanding how all the above fits within and/or may shape U.S.-ROK and U.S.-Japan alliance posture and transformation in the years ahead