Deterrence, Missile Defense & Space

Following are all current, recent, and past IFPA projects, publications, conferences, workshops, articles, and presentations about nuclear deterrence, missile defense, and/or space capabilities.

  • research projects
  • publications
  • conferences & workshops
  • articles & presentations
The U.S.-Japan Alliance and the Future of Extended Deterrence
In the new setting since North Korea’s nuclear test, this project, completed in 2009, undertakes a fresh assessment of thinking in Japan and the United States about extended deterrence in Northeast Asia.
project report (1.86 MB) || project details
Space and U.S. Security: A Net Assessment
Although the United States is the dominant player in space, a growing number of countries are accessing space for both military and commercial purposes, challenging U.S. preeminence.
project report (5.96 MB) || project details
Independent Working Group on Missile Defense
As part of the IFPA missile defense program, the Independent Working Group (IWG) on Post-ABM Treaty Missile Defense and the Space Relationship is exploring missile defense architectures that include space-based systems.
report (7.04 MB) || June 23, 2009, roundtable || project details
Iran with Nuclear Weapons: Anticipating the Consequences for U.S. Security
Based on the assumption, unpalatable as it may seem, that a nuclear Iran is all but inevitable, this project, completed in 2008, focuses on three critically important questions.
project report (6.81 MB) || project details
Missile Defense and Counterproliferation Studies
Recognizing that over the first decade of the twenty-first century the United States and its allies will face a proliferation of precision weapons and missiles in the hands of adversaries, IFPA undertook several projects between 1997 and 2002 to assess U.S. and Allied missile defense and counterproliferation policy and technology.
Air, Space, and Cyberspace Power in the 21st-Century
38th IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy
Conference report
September 2010
Description
The conference report from the 38th IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy, "Air, Space, and Cyberspace Power in the 21st-Century," addresses the defining issues for the U.S. Air Force (USAF) in the twenty-first-century security environment as well as the planning, operational, and investment challenges facing the USAF in the years ahead. These include balancing legacy missions with irregular warfare demands; determining where the USAF can take risks in platform modernization and how best to assign acquisition priorities in a constrained budget environment; identifying and promoting new mission areas and service competencies; and articulating an up-to-date strategy for enabling and supporting twenty-first-century security planning that facilitates combatant-commander security cooperation and joint and Allied/coalition operations, and contributing as well to broader interagency requirements.
The conference was held on January 20–21, 2010, in Washington, D.C. Building on previous conferences in this series, the 38th IFPA-Fletcher National Security Conference brought together a unique mix of expertise from government and the private sector; from the civilian and military communities; from think tanks, industry, and academia; and from the United States and abroad.
report (3.45 MB) || post-conference website
Countering the EMP Threat: The Role of Missile Defense
White paper by Henry Cooper and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.
July 2010, 12 pp
Description
Among the threats facing the United States are short-range ballistic missiles launched from vessels such as freighters, tankers, or container ships off our shores to detonate a warhead that could have catastrophic Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) consequences for the United States. After discussing the potential for a successful EMP attack, this report suggests what can (and should) be done to counter such an attack by using existing and near-term missile defense capabilities, beginning immediately.
report(2 MB) || project details
Frequently Asked Questions about Ballistic Missile Defense: A Guide
The Independent Working Group
May 2010, 23 pp
Description
This guide is based on information contained in the 2009 Independent Working Group Report entitled Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, and the Twenty-First Century. The purpose of the guide is to address the most often asked questions and to provide information about missile defense.
guide || project details
Realigning Priorities: The U.S.-Japan Alliance and the Future of Extended Deterrence
James L. Schoff
May 2009
Description
North Korea's missile/rocket launch over Japan and maritime skirmishes in the South China Sea between the United States and China place new burdens on the U.S.-Japan security relationship. For more than two generations the United States has provided a security guarantee to Japan that is backed by the U.S. nuclear capability. The future of this extended deterrence relationship is the focus of this report. It addresses evolving discussion about deterrence in Japan as well as the United States and examines the conditions under which Japan might consider new approaches to assuring its future security.
project report (1.86 MB) || project details
Updating U.S. Deterrence Concepts and Operational Planning: Reassuring Allies, Deterring Legacy Threats, and Dissuading Nuclear "Wannabes"
Jacquelyn K. Davis, Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Charles M. Perry, and James L. Schoff
February 2009, 22 pp
Description
Among the potentially contentious issues requiring focused attention and innovative thinking by the Obama administration are those relating to the future of U.S. deterrence planning. Members of the administration are already on record as favoring a significant unilateral reduction in U.S. nuclear weapons. Some are calling for the ratification of a Comprehensive (Nuclear) Test Ban Treaty; others are questioning proposals to update the U.S. nuclear infrastructure and modernize the U.S. nuclear warhead inventory to make American deterrent forces better able to meet and counter legacy and emerging deterrence threats and challenges. This paper provides an assessment of the future of U.S. nuclear planning and offers new ideas about deterrence in the dramatically changed twenty-first-century security planning environment.
report (1.67 MB)
The Space and U.S. Security Net Assessment
Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.
January 2009, 83 pp
Description
This report, the product of a year-long study effort, has been prepared as a contribution to the discussion about the future role of the United States in space. It surveys the current status of U.S. space activities and draws comparisons with other countries that have developed space programs in recent decades. It projects major trends into a ten- to twenty-year timeframe to identify factors that may have important positive or negative implications for the position of the United States relative to other nations in the next decade. Because of the inherently dual-use nature of space technology and the growing role of the commercial sector, this net assessment takes a broad view of space, encompassing space technologies for military uses and for commercial purposes. It underscores the mutually important role of space in U.S. national security and in the U.S. economy.
report (5.96 MB) || project details
Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, and the Twenty-first Century
The Independent Working Group
January 2009
Description
This report provides an assessment of missile defense requirements beyond the limited ground-based system currently being deployed, together with opportunities to benefit from existing and new technologies. It presents proven technology options that should form the basis for deployment of an innovative missile defense that draws upon the legacy of technologies developed during the Strategic Defense Initiative program of the Reagan administration and the first Bush administration. The report lays out the necessary vision to exploit existing and future technologies, with space as an indispensable part of missile defense.
report (7.04 MB) || project details
Iran with Nuclear Weapons: Anticipating the Consequences for U.S. Policy
Jacquelyn K. Davis and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.
September 2008, 93 pp
Description
We need only ponder the problems posed by an Iran without nuclear weapons to begin to assess the challenges of an Iran in possession of an operational nuclear weapons capability. Considering the issue from the perspective of three different heuristic models of Iran’s proliferation—a defensive Iran, an aggressive Iran, and an unstable Iran—this report assesses the political, strategic, and operational implications of Iran’s attainment of a nuclear weapons capability. It assumes that absent strong, unified, multilateral action to impose a strict sanctions regime, a United Nations Security Council-approved embargo, or other tightly enforced trade and financial restrictions, current policies will not suffice to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear weapons state.
report (6.81 MB) || project details
A New Maritime Strategy for 21st-Century National Security
37th IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy
February 2007
conference report (1.27 MB)
Nuclear Proliferation and the Future of U.S. Defense and Deterrence Planning
Jacquelyn K. Davis and Charles M. Perry
January 2005
executive summary (7.42 MB)
Implementing the New Triad: Nuclear and Non-Nuclear Forces in 21st-Century Deterrence
36th IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security and Policy:
January 2005, 122 pp
conference report (3.77 MB)
Assessing the Cruise Missile Puzzle: How Great a Defense Challenge?
David R. Tanks
October 2000, 40 pp
report (4 MB)
National Missile Defense: Policy Issues and Technological Capabilities
David R. Tanks
July 2000
full report (13.3 MB) || executive summary (1.59 MB)
Commercial Space and Military Information Dominance
David R. Tanks
June 1998, 19 pp
study (417 KB)
Exploring U.S. Missile Defense Requirements in 2010: What Are the Policy and Technology Challenges?
David R. Tanks
July 1997
report
Allied-Central European Workshop on Post-Cold War Concepts of Deterrence
Workshop report
January 1996, 22 pp
Security Strategy and Missile Defense
Edited by Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.
December 1995
available for purchase ($10)
Proliferation, Theater Missile Defense, and U.S. Security
January 1994, 44 pp
U.S.-Russian Relations Beyond New START: What’s Next, What’s Possible, and What’s Necessary
March 7, 2011, Washington, D.C., an IFPA-DTRA-EUCOM workshop
The Air Force's Nuclear Mission and the Future of Deterrence Planning
June 11, 2009, Washington, D.C., in support of the chief of staff, U.S. Air Force
38th IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy: Air, Space, and Cyberspace Power in the 21st-Century
January 20 – January 21, 2010, Washington, D.C.
report (3.45 MB) || post-conference website
Emerging Threats and Homeland/National Security: The Role of Missile Defense
September 22 – June 23, 2009, Washington, D.C., Independent Working Group roundtable
roundtable details || streaming audio || project details
36th IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security and Policy: Implementing the New Triad: Nuclear and Non-Nuclear Forces in 21st-Century Deterrence
December 14 – December 15, 2005, Washington, D.C.
report (3.8 MB)
Space and Information Operations in a Homeland Security Contingency
April 2, 2002, Washington D.C., in support of U.S. Space Command and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency
The Changing Face of Deterrence for NATO: New Concepts, Capabilities, and Challenges
March 4, 2004, Washington, D.C., in support of U.S. Strategic Command, U.S. European Command, and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.
Stability, Deterrence, and the Future of the U.S.-ROK Alliance: Current Pressures and Emerging Priorities
January 29, 2003, Washington, D.C., in support of U.S. Pacific Command, U.S. Forces Korea, and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency
SOCOM Strategic Vision Wargame
December 3 – December 6, 2002, Norfolk, Virginia, in support of U.S. Special Operations Command, and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency
Missile Defense and Counterproliferation on the Korean Peninsula: Exploring U.S. - ROK Options and Requirements
October 8, 2002, Seoul, South Korea
report (1.24 MB)|| project details
A Fiscal 2012 Missile Defense Agenda
By the Independent Working Group, February 14, 2011
article (219 KB) || project details
A Dangerous Gap in Our Defenses? An EMP Attack Is a Terrible Threat That Could Be Countered Now
Op-ed by Henry F. Cooper and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.
National Review Online, December 14, 2010
op-ed (216 KB) || project details
U.S. Extended Deterrence Commitments in East Asia and U.S. Nuclear Posture
Speech by James L. Schoff
Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., June 3, 2009
U.S.-Japan Alliance and the Future of Extended Deterrence
Speech by James L. Schoff
Stanford University Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, May 11, 2009
Boost-Phase Missile Defense
Talk by Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.
Boost-Phase Missile Defense: Present Challenges, Future Prospects, seminar at the Capitol Hill Club, Washington, D.C., April 3, 2009
lecture (43 KB)
Does the Nonproliferation Tail Wag the Deterrence Dog?
James L. Schoff
PacNet, no. 9, February 5, 2009
article (32 KB)
The Shoot-Down of the Failing NRO Satellite: Implications for ICBM Missile Defense
Speech by Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.
Capitol Hill Forum on Missile Defense: Implications of the February 2008 Satellite Intercept, Washington, D.C., October 9, 2008
speech (44 KB)
Collaboration with NATO on Missile Defense
Speech by Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.,
Conference on Missile Defence after the Bucharest NATO Summit: European and American Perspectives, Prague, the Czech Republic, May 5, 2008
speech (37 KB)
Hedging and the U.S.-Japan Alliance
Speech by James L. Schoff
U.S.-Japan Strategic Dialogue, hosted by MIT at the Endicott House, Dedham, Massachusetts, February 20, 2008.
Space and Missile Defense
Speech by Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.
To the Federalist Society and held at the National Press Club, Washington, D.C., June 20, 2007
speech (35 KB)
Weapons in Space
Speech by Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.
To the Boston Council on Foreign Relations, June 18, 2007
speech (40 KB)