Based on a study originally completed under a grant to IFPA from the Smith Richardson Foundation, this book addresses major political and security challenges for the United States if Iran acquires a nuclear weapons capability. The co-authors are Dr. Jacquelyn K. Davis and Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr. It is scheduled for publication by Columbia University Press this fall.

Rather than focus on Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capabilities, this volume assumes the worst, and a defensive, aggressive, and unstable Iran is already in the possession of a nuclear arsenal. How should the U.S. handle this threat, and can it deter the use of such weapons? Exploring three potential scenarios in which Iran becomes a nuclear state, this volume breaks down the political, strategic, and operational challenges facing the U.S. in a post-Cold War world.

The volume concentrates on the type of nuclear capability Iran might develop; the conditions under which Iran might resort to threatened or actual weapons use; the extent to which Iran’s military strategy and declaratory policy might embolden Iran and its proxies to pursue more aggressive policies in the region and vis-à-vis the United States; and Iran’s ability to transfer nuclear materials to others within and outside of the region, possibly sparking a nuclear cascade. Drawing on recent post-Cold War deterrence theory, the authors consider Iran’s nuclear ambitions as they relate to its foreign policy objectives, domestic politics, and role in the Islamic world, and they suggest specific approaches the U.S. can undertake to improve its defense and deterrence planning.

Jacquelyn K. Davis is executive vice president of the Institute.

Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr., is president of the Institute and Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of International Security Studies at the Fletcher School, Tufts University.

original study

Report of the April 20, 2102, Capitol Hill briefing convened and sponsored by the Independent Working Group (IWG) on Missile Defense and the Space Relationship. Organized by IFPA, the meeting brought together expertise on space, nuclear modernization, and missile defense to discuss the synergistic relationships among these core components which together form the elements of a new Strategic Triad to support U.S. national security strategy and defense policy. Participants included Senate and House Staff members, officials from the Departments of Defense, State, and the military services, subject matter experts, representatives from industry, and IWG members.

• report (772 KB)
• briefing details and video
• project details

The conference report from the 38th IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy, "Air, Space, and Cyberspace Power in the 21st-Century," addresses the defining issues for the U.S. Air Force (USAF) in the twenty-first-century security environment as well as the planning, operational, and investment challenges facing the USAF in the years ahead. These include balancing legacy missions with irregular warfare demands; determining where the USAF can take risks in platform modernization and how best to assign acquisition priorities in a constrained budget environment; identifying and promoting new mission areas and service competencies; and articulating an up-to-date strategy for enabling and supporting twenty-first-century security planning that facilitates combatant-commander security cooperation and joint and Allied/coalition operations, and contributing as well to broader interagency requirements.
The conference was held on January 20–21, 2010, in Washington, D.C. Building on previous conferences in this series, the 38th IFPA-Fletcher National Security Conference brought together a unique mix of expertise from government and the private sector; from the civilian and military communities; from think tanks, industry, and academia; and from the United States and abroad.

• report (3.45 MB)
• post-conference website

Among the threats facing the United States are short-range ballistic missiles launched from vessels such as freighters, tankers, or container ships off our shores to detonate a warhead that could have catastrophic Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) consequences for the United States. After discussing the potential for a successful EMP attack, this report suggests what can (and should) be done to counter such an attack by using existing and near-term missile defense capabilities, beginning immediately.

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This guide is based on information contained in the 2009 Independent Working Group Report entitled Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, and the Twenty-First Century. The purpose of the guide is to address the most often asked questions and to provide information about missile defense.

• guide (11.3 MB)
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North Korea's missile/rocket launch over Japan and maritime skirmishes in the South China Sea between the United States and China place new burdens on the U.S.-Japan security relationship. For more than two generations the United States has provided a security guarantee to Japan that is backed by the U.S. nuclear capability. The future of this extended deterrence relationship is the focus of this report. It addresses evolving discussion about deterrence in Japan as well as the United States and examines the conditions under which Japan might consider new approaches to assuring its future security.

• project report (1.86 MB)
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Among the potentially contentious issues requiring focused attention and innovative thinking by the Obama administration are those relating to the future of U.S. deterrence planning. Members of the administration are already on record as favoring a significant unilateral reduction in U.S. nuclear weapons. Some are calling for the ratification of a Comprehensive (Nuclear) Test Ban Treaty; others are questioning proposals to update the U.S. nuclear infrastructure and modernize the U.S. nuclear warhead inventory to make American deterrent forces better able to meet and counter legacy and emerging deterrence threats and challenges. This paper provides an assessment of the future of U.S. nuclear planning and offers new ideas about deterrence in the dramatically changed twenty-first-century security planning environment.

• report (1.67 MB)

This report, the product of a year-long study effort, has been prepared as a contribution to the discussion about the future role of the United States in space. It surveys the current status of U.S. space activities and draws comparisons with other countries that have developed space programs in recent decades. It projects major trends into a ten- to twenty-year timeframe to identify factors that may have important positive or negative implications for the position of the United States relative to other nations in the next decade. Because of the inherently dual-use nature of space technology and the growing role of the commercial sector, this net assessment takes a broad view of space, encompassing space technologies for military uses and for commercial purposes. It underscores the mutually important role of space in U.S. national security and in the U.S. economy.

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This report provides an assessment of missile defense requirements beyond the limited ground-based system currently being deployed, together with opportunities to benefit from existing and new technologies. It presents proven technology options that should form the basis for deployment of an innovative missile defense that draws upon the legacy of technologies developed during the Strategic Defense Initiative program of the Reagan administration and the first Bush administration. The report lays out the necessary vision to exploit existing and future technologies, with space as an indispensable part of missile defense.

• report (7.04 MB)
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We need only ponder the problems posed by an Iran without nuclear weapons to begin to assess the challenges of an Iran in possession of an operational nuclear weapons capability. Considering the issue from the perspective of three different heuristic models of Iran’s proliferation — a defensive Iran, an aggressive Iran, and an unstable Iran — this report assesses the political, strategic, and operational implications of Iran’s attainment of a nuclear weapons capability. It assumes that absent strong, unified, multilateral action to impose a strict sanctions regime, a United Nations Security Council-approved embargo, or other tightly enforced trade and financial restrictions, current policies will not suffice to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear weapons state.

• report (6.81 MB)
• project details

• conference report (1.27 MB)

• executive summary (7.42 MB)

• conference report (3.77 MB)

• report (4 MB)

• full report (13.3 MB)
• executive summary (1.59 MB)

study (417 KB)

report

• available for purchase ($10)

Organized by IFPA, this Capitol Hill briefing brought together expertise on space, nuclear modernization, and missile defense to discuss the synergistic relationships among these core components which together form the elements of a new Strategic Triad to support U.S. national security strategy and defense policy. The focus was priority issues and programs within and among space, nuclear modernization, and missile defense. Presentations were given by a panel of experts drawn primarily from IWG membership. The conference drew at least seventy-five participants from House and Senate staffs, the U.S. military services, the official civilian government, and the broader Washington, D.C., policy community. The program was videotaped as part of an effort to give broader dissemination to the presentations and discussion.

• briefing report (772 KB)
• briefing details and video
• project details

The event featured sessions on threats and recent trends in missile defense; current issues including New START , the Nuclear Posture Review, nuclear modernization, and implications for missile defense; and priorities, budget needs and constraints, and programmatic initiatives.

• Conference details
• About the project

• report (3.45 MB)
• post-conference website

• roundtable details
• streaming audio
• project details

• report (3.8 MB)

• report (1.24 MB)
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• article (219 KB)

• op-ed (216 KB)

Boost-Phase Missile Defense: Present Challenges, Future Prospects, seminar at the Capitol Hill Club, Washington, D.C., April 3, 2009

• lecture (43 KB)

• article (32 KB)

Capitol Hill Forum on Missile Defense: Implications of the February 2008 Satellite Intercept, Washington, D.C., October 9, 2008

• speech (44 KB)

Conference on Missile Defence after the Bucharest NATO Summit: European and American Perspectives, Prague, the Czech Republic, May 5, 2008

• speech (37 KB)

To the Federalist Society and held at the National Press Club, Washington, D.C., June 20, 2007

• speech (35 KB)

To the Boston Council on Foreign Relations, June 18, 2007

• speech (40 KB)