WMD Proliferation & Disarmament

Following are all current, recent, and past IFPA projects, publications, conferences, workshops, articles, and presentations that address proliferation of weapons of mass descturction (WMD) and/or disarmament.

research
publications
events
articles &
presentations
  • Research

    Rowing Together: Developing Parallel Paths to Stability, Denuclearization and a Peace Regime on the Korean Peninsula

    With generous support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, IFPA has launched this new project that focuses primary attention on the U.S.-ROK-China triangle as the key dynamic in helping to shape a peaceful and denuclearized Korean Peninsula.

     
    Iran with Nuclear Weapons: Anticipating the Consequences for U.S. Security

    Based on the assumption, unpalatable as it may seem, that a nuclear Iran is all but inevitable, this project, completed in 2008, focuses on three critically important questions.

     
    Peace Regime Building for a Nuclear Weapon-free Korean Peninsula: Next Steps for Capacity Building

    In cooperation with institutional partners in Northeast Asia, IFPA is leading a nongovernmental multinational working group to discuss, research, and draft a joint proposal for a Korean peace regime that complements related inter-Korean efforts and facilitates North Korean denuclearization.

     
    Support to the Defense Department, Combatant Commands, and Military Service Leadership

    This is an ongoing project for the Department of Defense (DoD), for which the Institute provides detailed policy reports and organizes high-level workshops on critical issues of national security for DoD, combatant command (COCOM), and military service leaderships.

     
    Building Six-Party Capacity for a WMD-Free Korea

    This three-year study completed in 2008 involves all of the countries in the six-party process and examines how these countries can build a regional organization to help implement the key aspects of a denuclearization agreement reached with North Korea.

     
    Missile Defense and Counterproliferation Studies

    Recognizing that over the first decade of the twenty-first century the United States and its allies will face a proliferation of precision weapons and missiles in the hands of adversaries, IFPA undertook several projects between 1997 and 2002 to assess U.S. and Allied missile defense and counterproliferation policy and technology.

    Nuclear Stability in South Asia

    This study, completed in 2001, examined ways to enhance nuclear stability on the subcontinent.

     
    Development of a Post-Cold War Academic Curriculum

    Launched in 1994, this project explores post-Cold War instructional approaches in professional military educational institutions, particularly with regard to the security ramifications of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) proliferation and deterrence.

  • Publications

    Rowing Together: Developing Parallel Paths to Stability, Denuclearization and a Peace Regime on the Korean Peninsula
    Weston Konishi
    December 2013, 128 pp

    Many consider U.S.-China-Republic of Korea trilateral cooperation to be a key dynamic in achieving a denuclearized North Korea and a more lasting peace structure on the Korean Peninsula. Yet dialogue among these three actors is relatively unheard of, and Beijing, Seoul, and Washington continue to diverge on many critical aspects of managing the ongoing nuclear crisis with North Korea. Rather than “rowing together” on many critical areas of peninsular security, the United States, China, and the ROK have often been “rowing apart.” With generous support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA) launched a major project in 2011 aimed at enhancing U.S.-China-ROK dialogue on this critical issue and encouraging all three sides to “row together.” Leading experts and officials from all three countries convened over the course of two workshop sessions in Beijing and Jeju Island to explore new avenues for trilateral cooperation on the Korean Peninsula. IFPA commissioned six conference papers, each representing the views of the participating countries, from select workshop participants. The conference papers are collected here, in this compendium report, providing policy makers and researchers with an invaluable collection of analysis as well as realistic recommendations for improving trilateral cooperation toward containing and reducing (if not eliminating) North Korea’s nuclear programs and strengthening the prospects for stability and security on and around the Korean Peninsula.

     
    Anticipating a Nuclear Iran: Challenges for U.S. Security
    Jacquelyn K. Davis and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.
    December 2013

    Published by Columbia University Press in December 2013 , this book is based on a study originally completed under a grant to IFPA from the Smith Richardson Foundation and addresses major political and security challenges for the United States if Iran acquires a nuclear weapons capability. The co-authors are Dr. Jacquelyn K. Davis and Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.

    Rather than focus on Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capabilities, this volume assumes the worst, and a defensive, aggressive, and unstable Iran is already in the possession of a nuclear arsenal. How should the U.S. handle this threat, and can it deter the use of such weapons? Exploring three potential scenarios in which Iran becomes a nuclear state, this volume breaks down the political, strategic, and operational challenges facing the U.S. in a post-Cold War world.

    The volume concentrates on the type of nuclear capability Iran might develop; the conditions under which Iran might resort to threatened or actual weapons use; the extent to which Iran’s military strategy and declaratory policy might embolden Iran and its proxies to pursue more aggressive policies in the region and vis-à-vis the United States; and Iran’s ability to transfer nuclear materials to others within and outside of the region, possibly sparking a nuclear cascade. Drawing on recent post-Cold War deterrence theory, the authors consider Iran’s nuclear ambitions as they relate to its foreign policy objectives, domestic politics, and role in the Islamic world, and they suggest specific approaches the U.S. can undertake to improve its defense and deterrence planning.

     
    Denuclearizing North Korea: Exploring Multilateral Approaches to Risk Reduction and Peace Regime Building
    Weston S. Konishi
    September 2011, 71 pp

    The final project report from a nongovernmental (Track 2) multinational working group led by IFPA to address security issues on the Korean peninsula.

     
    Peace Regime Building for a Nuclear Weapon-free Korean Peninsula: What Next?
    James L. Schoff and Yaron Eisenberg
    May 2009

    North Korea's recent nuclear test is only the latest in a series of moves by Pyongyang that seem directed at "shaping a new diplomatic framework" for the Korean Peninsula, rejecting the Six-Party process and returning to its traditional insistence on bilateral talks with the United States to end the Korean War. These developments illustrate the strong linkages between North Korean denuclearization and peace regime building on the Korean Peninsula (i.e., trying to institute a political solution to the Korean War beyond just a military armistice). Working with partners in South Korea, the United States, and China, IFPA is in the middle of a three-year project exploring peace regime building on the Korean Peninsula in ways that support and facilitate the denuclearization objectives of the Six-Party Talks; this interim report describes the results of over a year's worth of interviews, research, and a U.S.-South Korea bilateral workshop, up to and including North Korea's May 2009 nuclear test.

     
    The Six-Party Talks and New Opportunities to Strengthen Regional Nonproliferation and Disarmament Efforts
    Matthew Martin
    March 2009

    Report of an October 2008 conference sponsored by the Stanley Foundation, the National Committee on North Korea, the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, and the Chinese Arms Control and Disarmament Association.

     
    Updating U.S. Deterrence Concepts and Operational Planning: Reassuring Allies, Deterring Legacy Threats, and Dissuading Nuclear "Wannabes"
    Jacquelyn K. Davis, Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Charles M. Perry, and James L. Schoff
    February 2009, 22 pp

    Among the potentially contentious issues requiring focused attention and innovative thinking by the Obama administration are those relating to the future of U.S. deterrence planning. Members of the administration are already on record as favoring a significant unilateral reduction in U.S. nuclear weapons. Some are calling for the ratification of a Comprehensive (Nuclear) Test Ban Treaty; others are questioning proposals to update the U.S. nuclear infrastructure and modernize the U.S. nuclear warhead inventory to make American deterrent forces better able to meet and counter legacy and emerging deterrence threats and challenges. This paper provides an assessment of the future of U.S. nuclear planning and offers new ideas about deterrence in the dramatically changed twenty-first-century security planning environment.

     
    Iran with Nuclear Weapons: Anticipating the Consequences for U.S. Policy
    Jacquelyn K. Davis and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.
    September 2008, 93 pp

    We need only ponder the problems posed by an Iran without nuclear weapons to begin to assess the challenges of an Iran in possession of an operational nuclear weapons capability. Considering the issue from the perspective of three different heuristic models of Iran’s proliferation — a defensive Iran, an aggressive Iran, and an unstable Iran — this report assesses the political, strategic, and operational implications of Iran’s attainment of a nuclear weapons capability. It assumes that absent strong, unified, multilateral action to impose a strict sanctions regime, a United Nations Security Council-approved embargo, or other tightly enforced trade and financial restrictions, current policies will not suffice to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear weapons state.

     
    Nuclear Matters in North Korea: Building a Multilateral Response for Future Stability in Northeast Asia
    James L. Schoff, Charles M. Perry, and Jacquelyn K. Davis
    July 2008, 186 pp

    This 2008 monograph presents the findings of a three-year multilateral research project that explores ways to bridge differences among the parties and to develop a common approach to North Korean nuclearization. It explores the strengths and weaknesses of the six-party process and offers practical solutions to the numerous implementation challenges regarding nuclear dismantlement and verification, and coordinated economic assistance and investment.

     
    Building Multi-party Capacity for a WMD-free Korean Peninsula
    August 2006, 49 pp

    Report of a workshop held on February 17, 2006,in Honolulu, Hawaii. Government officials and foreign-policy experts from the United States, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Australia gathered for a one-day workshop to discuss the six-party talks and to explore options for building regional capacity to implement a denuclearization agreement with North Korea, if and when one is concluded.

     
    Building Multi-Party Capacity for a WMD-Free Korean Peninsula
    Multilateral Workshop Summary & ProjectReport
    June 2005, 50 pp

     
    Nuclear Proliferation and the Future of U.S. Defense and Deterrence Planning
    Jacquelyn K. Davis and Charles M. Perry
    January 2005

     
    The Evolution of TCOG as a Diplomatic Tool: First Interim Report
    An IFPA Project Interim Paper
    November 2004, 32 pp

     
    Coordinating Regional Strategies for a WMD-Free Korea: A Multilateral Dialogue Report
    Guillermo Pinczuk and James Schoff
    May 2004, 32 pp

     
    Building Six-Party Capacity for a WMD-Free Korea
    James L. Schoff, Charles M. Perry, and Jacquelyn K. Davis
    January 2004, 112 pp

     
    Nuclear Energy and Science for the 21st Century: Atoms for Peace Plus 50
    January 2004, 74 pp

     
    WMD Challenges on the Korean Peninsula and New Approaches: A Trilateral Dialogue Report
    Summary report on a U.S.-ROK-Japan workshop
    July 2003

     
    Missile Defense and Counterproliferation on the Korean Peninsula: Exploring U.S.-ROK Requirements and Options
    January 2003, 34 pp

     
    Nuclear Stability in South Asia
    Andrew Winner and Toshi Yoshinara
    January 2002, 122 pp

     
    Proliferation, Theater Missile Defense, and U.S. Security
    January 1994, 44 pp
  • Events

    Rowing Together: Developing Parallel Paths to Stability, Denuclearization and a Peace Regime on the Korean Peninsula
    May 9 – May 10, 2012, Beijing

    The first of two workshops held as part of the Rowing Together: Developing Parallel Paths to Stability, Denuclearization, and a Peace Regime on the Korean Peninsula project. The event was jointly organized by IFPA, the Beijing-based China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), and the Seoul-based Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS) and included leading experts from China, South Korea, and the United States.

     
    U.S.-Russian Relations Beyond New START: What’s Next, What’s Possible, and What’s Necessary
    March 7, 2011, Washington, D.C., an IFPA-DTRA-EUCOM workshop
    Exploring Options for Iran: Implications for DoD and Interagency Planning
    January 28, 2011, Washington, D.C., an IFPA-DTRA workshop
    Risk Reduction & Confidence Building on the Korean Peninsula: Challenges, Opportunities & Implications for Regional Stability
    January 19, 2011, Seoul, Republic of Korea

    A one-day trilateral dialogue organized by IFPA, the Institute for Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), and the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) and supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

     
    Preventing A Nuclear Iran: Current Challenges and Future Opportunities
    October 19, 2010, Washington, D.C., an IFPA-DTRA workshop
    Peace Regime Building on the Korean Peninsula
    November 22, 2008, Washington, D.C.

    A bilateral workshop to help develop an allied consensus with regard to peace regime development on the Korean Peninsula and for broader U.S.-ROK policy coordination vis-á-vis North Korea.

     
    The Six-Party Talks and Opportunities to Strengthen Regional Nonproliferation and Disarmament
    October 23 – October 24, 2008, Beijing, China

    A multilateral dialogue looking beyond the immediate challenges associated with North Korean denuclearization to begin to chart a course for managing that country’s re-entry into the NPT in ways that strengthen regional and global nonproliferation and disarmament norms.

     
    U.S.-European Dialogue on Combating WMD Proliferation
    September 21 – September 22, 2008, Garmisch, Germany, in support of U.S. European Command and the Marshall Center/NATO
    WMD Proliferation and Critical North Korea Scenarios
    September 20 – September 21, 2007, Chantilly, Virginia, in support of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence
    Building Multi-party Capacity for a WMD-free Korean Peninsula
    April 27, 2007, Beijing, China

     
    The Way Ahead with Iran: A Libya in Waiting, a Nuclear Pariah, or Something in Between?
    August 1, 2006, Washington, D.C., in support of the under secretary of state for arms control and international security
    SHAPE Seminar on Weapons of Mass Destruction: Risks and Challenges to Alliance Security
    March 9, 2006, Brussels, Belgium, in support of General James L. Jones, the supreme Allied commander, Europe (SACEUR)
    Building Multi-party Capacity for a WMD-free Korean Peninsula
    February 17, 2006, Honolulu, Hawaii

    Government officials and foreign-policy experts from the United States, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Australia gathered for a one-day workshop to discuss the six-party talks and to explore options for building regional capacity to implement a denuclearization agreement with North Korea, if and when one is concluded.

     
    Options for Handling the Challenges Associated with Iran’s WMD Programs
    June 25, 2003, Washington, D.C., in support of the National Security Council and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency
    The WMD Challenge on the Korean Peninsula: Exploring a Joint U.S. - ROK Alliance Response
    April 26, 2002, Washington, D.C., part of the Building Six-Party Capacity project

     
  • Articles & Presentations

    Consensus Building and Peace Regime Building on the Korean Peninsula
    Charles M. Perry and James L. Schoff
    International Journal of Korean Unification Studies 19, no. 1 (June 30, 2010)

    The Road to Better US-North Korea Relations Starts in Seoul
    James L. Schoff

    PacNet, no. 8, February 22, 2010

    Broaching Peace Regime Concepts to Support North Korean Denuclearization
    James L. Schoff

    Produced as part of the Nautilus Institute study, Improving Regional Security and Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula: U.S. Policy Interests and Options, 2009

    An Iran with Nuclear Weapons
    Lecture by Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.

    Foreign PolicyChallenges for the New Administration: Iran and the Middle East, seminar at the Fares Center for Eastern Mediterranean Studies, Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts, March 6, 2009; Dr. Pfaltzgraff also served as panel moderator

    Nuclear Matters in North Korea: U.S. Strategy and the Six-Party Talks
    Speech by James L. Schoff
    Indianapolis World Affairs Council, Indianapolis, Indiana, May 20, 2008.
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