Japan-DPRK Relations

Identifying Trends in Japan-DPRK Relations and Implications for U.S. Policy

Recently completed, this project funded by the Smith-Richardson Foundation examined the underlying trends in Japan’s North Korea policies and public opinion and assess their implications for U.S. policy. Washington’s policy options vis-à-vis North Korea are increasingly constrained, and although the Japan-DPRK relationship is only one piece of a complex puzzle it is a central one that will influence near-term U.S. strategy and tactics. The United States will have to make a strategic decision about how it wants to break the six-party stalemate, and, regardless of the choice it makes, strong support from Japan, America’s closest ally in the confrontation with North Korea, will be critical to success.

Broadly speaking, U.S. policy makers can either seek to apply greater economic and diplomatic pressure on North Korea, or they can pursue a more conciliatory approach. The first option will be difficult without support from China and South Korea, but it could yield some results if Japan enthusiastically backs a hard-line policy. An aggressive U.S. strategy would fall apart, however, if support from Japan or the Japanese public wavered; Washington has been surprised before by fluctuating or conflicting policy signals in Tokyo. Conversely, the second strategic option could create serious problems for the U.S.-Japan alliance if anti-DPRK sentiment runs much deeper in Tokyo than Washington perceives, or if key Japanese policy makers are making political calculations based on a continued adversarial relationship with Pyongyang.

There appear to be two different policy elite groups in Japan when it comes to tactics and strategy on the North Korean issue, one made up of North Korea pragmatists, and one made up of what could be called North Korea hawks. The pragmatists do not plan to go soft on North Korea, and they will stick close to U.S. policy on the issue, but they remain open to engagement and could coexist with the Kim Jong-il regime. The hawks probably view regime change in Pyongyang as the only viable solution to their security concerns and, to varying degrees, they would risk short-term regional instability to see this problem resolved.

The Project

To accurately assess the current situation and likely near-term trends, the project team first carriedout an intense survey and review of Japanese policy literature, government reports, and popular literature related these issues to shed light on the patterns of argument. The team also met with some U.S. officials to understand their interests. Next, the principal investigator traveled to Japan for one-on-one interviews with dozens of influential policy and opinion leaders in this area. The interview results will be consolidated into a concise report, and U.S. officials will be briefed on the report’s content.

The final report and briefings will greatly enhance U.S. policy makers’ understanding of the current and future political dynamics in Japan on the North Korean question. It can be an invaluable supplement to the other avenues of intelligence that policy makers have at their disposal, because it will involve so many private interviews that will be more numerous (and probably more candid) than any U.S. official could arrange alone.