This joint three-year study by IFPA and the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) examined the long-term implications of Korean unification for the U.S.-Japan alliance. It explored how the security relationship could weather the short- to medium-term instabilities unleashed by unification and, more importantly, how the partnership could retain and revitalize its relevance in a post-unification security environment.
The main themes of the study flowed from three fundamental assumptions. First, Korean unification, whenever and however it unfolds, will have a profound effect on the Japan-U.S. alliance in ways that could ultimately unravel the security relationship. Second, while the end of division on the peninsula would eliminate a central raison d'être of the alliance in the post-Cold War era, the security ties would remain relevant to the region. Third, a reconfigured Japan-U.S. alliance in the post-unification era, one that forms the basis for trilateral cooperation among Tokyo, Seoul, and Washington, would benefit the region by providing a broader security framework hitherto absent in Northeast Asia. Based on these assumptions, the study examined the following five themes:
1. Exploring approaches for the alliance to develop near- to long-term policies and strategies to cope with the uncertainties emanating from the process and the aftermath of unification. The security relationship must maintain the flexibility to cope with a range of contingencies throughout the unification process.
2. Identifying the convergence and divergence of interests between Tokyo and Washington in the event of unification. Given that the long-term strategic orientation of a unified Korea remains highly uncertain and could well unleash regional instabilities, clarifying alliance perspectives for the post-unification era was a top priority for the project.
3. Understanding how the alliance will adapt to Korean unification. A unified peninsula would render key aspects of existing arrangements, centered on contingency response to a Korean crisis, within the U.S.-Japan alliance obsolete virtually overnight. Hence, new policies and institutional changes aimed at broadening the alliance's security agenda would have to accompany the dramatic geopolitical transformation that Korean unification would bring about.
4. Enhancing the alliance's strategic ties to Korea and other regional powers will be a critical task for maintaining both the stability of the region and the vitality of the security relationship. In the aftermath of unification, the United States will have to reconfigure its forward presence in the Asia-Pacific region to reflect regional realities.
5. Generating public support and political consensus will be an important component to preparing for the post-unification era. No amount of policy planning and coordination will succeed unless each side presents a persuasive case to their respective constituencies that the alliance remains relevant and will in fact be more important in the aftermath of Korean unification.
In order to achieve the objectives of the study, IFPA and JIIA:
1) Conducted independent research and analysis.
2) Hosted workshops in the United States and Japan. The U.S. workshop was held March 13-14, 2001, in Washington, D.C. The Japan workshop was held in Tokyo on April 8-9, 2002.
3) Produced a summary report for the March 2001 workshop.
4) Published a monograph, The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Preparing for Korean Reconciliation & Bayond, based on the independent research and the two workshops. The preliminary findings of the initial stage of research formed the analytical framework for the workshops and the final monograph.
The Tokyo and Washington workshops fulfilled several objectives of the study. They provided a forum for the exchange of information, views, and findings to date. The meetings also allowed the core team members to regroup to discuss new research areas or strategies, measure the project's progress, and set new milestones for the study. The joint team then synthesized workshop discussions to produce summary reports.
While the workshops set the analytical and academic tone for the project, the purpose of the monograph was to use the findings from the workshops and parallel research to produce sound policy recommendations for Tokyo and Washington. The monograph was widely distributed to the policy communities in the United States and Japan. To ensure the monograph's influence on the policy process, the IFPA/JIIA team briefed senior level officials in Washington and Tokyo on the findings and recommendations of the study.
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