The Institute is engaged in an ongoing, in-depth study of U.S., Allied, and coalition-partner security perspectives and policies, with an emphasis on defense and security trends in South Asia, Europe, the Persian Gulf, and the Asia-Pacific region. As part of this study proprietary reports are published that describe developments, current thinking, and perspectives in the respective defense- and security-planning circles. Recent and pending reports and related staff activities are described below.
China
IFPA’s director of Asia-Pacific Studies, Rear Admiral Eric A. McVadon, USN (Ret.), testified before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on September 15, 2005, regarding recent trends in China ’s military modernization.
The September 2001 report is devoted to policy issues regarding weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in South Asia. Three main areas are addressed:
The report also inlcudes a chapter each on India and Pakistan, discussing their domestic politics, economies, and defense and readiness issues.
The spring 2002 report is a white paper that covers the strategic and operational implications of NATO enlargement in the Baltic region (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia). As the September 11th attacks make plain, the range of global challenges to the interests of the United States and the West is on the rise after a decade of comparative quiet following the end of the Cold War. NATO can and should remain an essential tool for coordinating both political and military action within the Euro-Atlantic community. However, the Alliance’s relevance and effectiveness will be determined by its ability to adapt to the new security setting and by the willingness of its members to make sound choices about the Alliance’s enlargement and internal restructuring. The upcoming Prague Summit, to be held in November 2002, will be a pivotal milestone in this regard.
As part of IFPA's ongoing efforts to provide timely analysis on NATO-related issues, the report examines a central element of the enlargement debate: the potential consequences of Baltic membership -- both for NATO itself and for US national interests. The Strategic and Operational Implications of NATO Enlargement in the Baltic Region provides a brief overview of the issues surrounding enlargement along NATO’s northern flank and offers a frank assessment of the costs and benefits of offering Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania invitations at Prague.
Issues explored include:
- The strategic costs of Baltic states' membership in NATO: what are the current security challenges in the region and what would their operational consequences be for NATO?
- Possible future threats to the Baltic region and how to repond to them: in the unlikely event that Russia reverted to an openly antagonistic, anti-Western stance, how would NATO and U.S. forces respond to a major Russian military challenge to its Baltic neighbors?
- The implications of various enlargement scenarios where one, two, or all three Baltic states are invited to join NATO
This report is available to download in PDF format.
Fall 2002
As part of its ongoing effort to explore strategic
and operational issues related to U.S. interests in the Middle East and Central
Asia, IFPA is currently preparing a major report examining developments in
the region in the post-September 11th world. The report will examine both
region-wide trends and developments in specific countries, with an eye towards
assessing the impact on the U.S. ability to pursue the war on terror and to
defend its vital interests in the region. Various factors that could affect
the Middle East and Central Asian security environment, including regime change,
the results of U.S. military action, changes to U.S. basing and access, and,
most importantly, the ongoing proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
(WMD), will be addressed in detail. The goal of the report will to provide
policymakers with a holistic assessment of the security environment in the
greater Middle East and how it will affect U.S. ability to pursue its policy
objectives in the years ahead.
Summer 1999
The summer 1999 report examines the security concerns and defense priorities of the six Persian Gulf countries making up the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Particular emphasis is given to the range of proliferation-related threats likely to confront the GCC countries in the years ahead, especially those associated with the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and means of delivery within the broader Persian Gulf and Southwest Asia regions. For each GCC country, the report examines:
- The perception of threats to its national security
- The history of politico-military interaction with the United States
- The domestic political, economic, and cultural factors influencing security and defense planning
- The view of the GCC's role in national security planning
- An assessment of the WMD threat
The report also addresses the prospects for common and collaborative approaches to counterproliferation on a GCC-wide basis and the implications of the above for U.S. military planning and overall posture in the Gulf.
The November 1997 report discusses current security-planning developments in Japan, the People's Republic of China, the Republic of Korea, and Australia as they prepare for mid- to long-term strategic developments in the post-Cold War era. The report details these countries' assessment of emerging threats, rethinking of military doctrine, setting of new spending and procurement priorities, and reexamination of relations with the United States. Topics presented include:
- Revitalizing the U.S.-Japan security relationship
- Changing Japanese defense perspectives and regional stability
- The evolving role of China: its increasing engagement in regional and security affairs, and whether it will develop into a responsible member of the international community or choose a more confrontational role
- South Korea's options for approaching the foreign policy and defense challenges of a unified Korea; new priorities for a peninsula-wide defense; and discussion of the future role, composition, and size of the U.S. military presence on the Korean peninsula
Changes in Australia's military doctrine, with a new emphasis on forward defense and deployment of army units abroad to promote regional stability
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