Iran with Nuclear Weapons

Iran with Nuclear Weapons: Literature Review & Briefing

With the assumption, unpalatable as it may seem, that a nuclear Iran is all but inevitable, it is of crucial importance to identify how nuclear weapons would fit into Iran’s national security strategy and in what manner they may be deployed. To begin this task, IFPA has assembled background materials that introduce the Iranian strategic setting.

By understanding Iran’s military structure, decision-making structure, domestic politics, domestic ethnic and dissident struggles, and the current debate over Iran’s nuclear developments, a picture can be deduced of Iran with nuclear weapons and the challenges it would present.

Military Structure

1. Byman, Daniel, Shahram Chubin, Anoushiravan Ehteshami and Jerrold D. Green, Iran's Security Policy in the Post-Revolutionary Era, RAND Corporation, 2001. Available for free download online here.

2. Jane’s World Armies, “Profile: Iran,” September 11, 2007. Password needed for link.

3. GlobalSecurity.org, “Supreme Defense Council.”

4. GlobalSecurity.org, “Qods (Jerusalem) Force.”

5. Ward, Steven R., “The Continuing Evolution of Iran’s Military Doctrine,” Middle East Journal, Volume 59, Number 4, Autumn 2005, pg. 559-576.

6. Knights, Michael, “Iran’s Conventional Forces Remain Key to Deterring Potential Threats,” Jane’s Intelligence Review, February 2006, pg. 6-13. Password needed for link.

7. Knights, Michael, “Deterrence by Punishment Could Offer Last Resort Options for Iran,” Jane’s Intelligence Review, April 2006, pg. 28-31. Password needed for link.

8. Wright, Robin, “Elite Revolutionary Guard Broadens Its Influence in Iran,” Washington Post, April 1, 2007, pg. A21.

9. Wahdat-Hagh, Wahied, “Basij – The Revolutionary People’s Militia of Iran,” MEMRI, Inquiry and Analysis Series, #262, February 1, 2006.

Government/Decision-making Structure

10. BBC, “Iran: Who Holds Power?”

11. Moslem, Mehdi, Factional Politics in Post-Khomeini Iran (Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press, 2002).

12. Kar, Mehrangiz, “Constitutional Constraints,” Journal of Democracy, Volume 14, Number 1, January 2003, pg. 132-136.

13. Mohammadi, Mehdi, “Nuclear Case From Beginning to End in Interview With Dr. Hasan Rowhani (Part 1): We Are Testing Europe,” Keyhan, FBIS, July 26, 2005.

14. Slackman, Michael, “Behind Iran’s Challenge to West, Cleric Cloaked in Immense Power,” New York Times, September 9, 2006, pg. 1.

15. Higgins, Andrew, “Inside Iran’s Holy Money Machine,” Wall Street Journal, June 2, 2007, pg. A1.

Domestic Politics

16. Takeyh, Ray, Hidden Iran: Paradox and Power in the Islamic Republic (New York: Times Books, 2006).

17. Moslem, Mehdi, Factional Politics in Post-Khomeini Iran (Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press, 2002).

18. Economist, “The Revolution Strikes Back: A Special Report on Iran,” July 21, 2007.

19. Vick, Karl, “Iran Moves to Curb Hard-Liners,” Washington Post, October 8, 2005, pg. A13.

20. Milani, Abbas and Michael McFaul, “Inside Iran’s Fractured Regime,” Washington Post, June 25, 2006, pg. B5.

21. Tisdall, Simon, “Special Report: Iran in Turmoil,” Guardian (London), April 30, 2007, pg. 20.

22. International Crisis Group, “Iran: Ahmadi-Nejad’s Tumultuous Presidency,” Middle East Briefing 21, February 6, 2007.

23. Daragahi, Borzou, “Iran’s Supreme Leader Affirms Policies,” Los Angeles Times, July 1, 2007, pg. 4.

24. Kamrava, Mehran, “Iranian National-Security Debates: Factionalism and Lost Opportunities,” Middle East Policy, Volume XIV, Number 2, Summer 2007, pg. 84-100.

25. Amuzegar, Jahangir, “The Ahmadinejad Era: Preparing for the Apocalypse,” Journal of International Affairs, Volume 60, Number 2, Spring/Summer 2007, pg. 25-53.

26. Blanche, Ed, “The Shark, the Crocodile and the ‘Silent Coup,’” The Middle East, February 2007, pg. 20-23.

27. Khalaji, Mehdi, “The Significance of Iran’s December Election,” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, PolicyWatch #1173, December 11, 2006.

28. Khalaji, Mehdi, “Iranian President Ahmadinezhad’s Relations with Supreme Leader Khamenei,” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, PolicyWatch #1147, September 12, 2006.

29. Clawson, Patrick and Mehdi Khalaji, “How Supreme is Iran’s Supreme Leader?” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, PolicyWatch #1262, July 23, 2007.

30. Savyon, Ayelet, “The ‘Second Islamic Revolution’ in Iran: Power Struggle at the Top,” MEMRI, Inquiry and Analysis Series, #253, November 17, 2005.

31. Savyon, Ayelet, “Power Struggle in Iran – Part II: Elections for the Assembly of Experts,” MEMRI, Inquiry and Analysis Series, #278, June 1, 2006.

32. Savyon, Ayelet, “Power Struggle in Iran – Part III: Iran Establishes New Foreign Relations Steering Committee,” MEMRI, Inquiry and Analysis Series, #283, July 29, 2006.

33. Askari, Hossein, “The Next Iranian Elections,” The National Interest, March 21, 2007.

MEK, Minorities and Dissidents

MEK

34. U.S. Department of State, “Country Reports on Terrorism: 2006,” April 2007.

35. Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Center, “Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK),” July 1, 2005.
Password needed for link.

36. Brew, Nigel, “Behind the Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK), Department of the Parliamentary Library (Australia), Number 43, June 16, 2003.

37. Peterson, Scott, “Why the US Granted ‘Protected’ Status to Iranian Terrorists,” Christian Science Monitor, July 29, 2004, pg. 7.

38. Higgins, Andrew and Jay Solomon, “Strange Bedfellows: Iranian Imbroglio Gives New Boost to Odd Exile Group,” Wall Street Journal, November 29, 2006, pg. A1.

39. Bruck, Connie, “Exiles: How Iran’s Expatriates are Gaming the Nuclear Threat,” New Yorker, Volume 82, Number 2, March 6, 2006, pg. 48. Article abstract available online here.

40. Human Rights Watch, “No Exit: Human Rights Abuses Inside the MKO Camps,” May 2005.

Minorities

41. Sadjadpour, Karim, “How Relevant is the Iranian Street?” The Washington Quarterly, Volume 30, Issue 1, Winter 2006-07, pg. 151-162.

42. Bradley, John R., “Iran’s Ethnic Tinderbox,” The Washington Quarterly, Volume 30, Number 1, Winter 2007-07, pg. 181-190.

Union Activity

43. Boustany, Nora, “Unions Around World to Protest Iran's Treatment of Bus Workers,” Washington Post, February 15, 2006, pg. A18.

44. Hakakian, Roya, “Iranian Solidarity?” Opinionjournal.com, March 5, 2006.

45. MacFarquhar, Neil, “Iran Cracks Down on Dissent,” New York Times, June 24, 2007, pg. 1.

46. Dareini, Ali Akbar, “Rights Groups Condemn Imprisonment of Iranian Union Leader,” Associated Press, July 17, 2007.

Blogger Crackdown

47. Hendelman-Baavur, Liora, “Promises and Perils of Weblogistan: Online Personal Journals and the Islamic Republic of Iran,” The Middle East Review of International Affairs, Volume 11, Number 2, June 2007.

48. Dickey, Christopher, “Writing Lolita in Tehran,” Newsweek, May 31, 2005.

49. Murphy, Brian, “Iranian Censors Clamp Down on Bloggers,” Associated Press, August 14, 2006.

50. McDowell, Angus, “Iranian Blogger Freed and Reporting Once Again,” The Independent (UK), July 24, 2007.

Baluchistan

51. Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Center, “Jondollah,” May 25, 2007.
Password needed for link.

Nuclear Program

52. Sadjadpour, Karim, “The Nuclear Players,” Journal of International Affairs, Volume 60, Number 2, Spring/Summer 2007, pg. 125-134.

53. Clawson, Patrick, and Michael Eisenstadt, Forcing Hard Choices on Tehran: Raising the Costs of Iran’s Nuclear Program, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Policy Focus #62, November 2006.

54. Guldimann, Tim, “The Iranian Nuclear Impasse,” Survival, Volume 49, Number 3, Autumn 2007, pg. 169-178.

55. Cirincione, Joseph, and Andrew Grotto, “Contain and Engage: A New Strategy for Resolving the Nuclear Crisis with Iran,” Center for American Progress, March 2007.

56. McFaul, Michael, Abbas Milani and Larry Diamond, “A Win-Win U.S. Strategy for Dealing with Iran,” The Washington Quarterly, Volume 30, Issue 1, Winter 2006-07, pg. 121-138.

57. Fitzpatrick, Mark, “Can Iran’s Nuclear Program Be Kept Latent?” Survival, Volume 49, Number 1, Spring 2007, pg. 33-58.

58. Sagan, Scott, Kenneth Waltz and Richard K. Betts, “A Nuclear Iran: Promoting Stability or Courting Disaster?” Journal of International Affairs, Volume 60, Number 2, Spring/Summer 2007, pg. 135-150.

59. Herman, Arthur, “Getting Serious About Iran: A Military Option,” Commentary, November 2006, pg. 28-32.

60. Podhoretz, Norman, “The Case for Bombing Iran,” Commentary, June 2007, pg. 17-23.

61. “Letters from Readers,” Commentary, October 2007, pg. 3-12.

62. Savyon, Ayelet, and Y. Mansharof, “Iran Determined to Continue Nuclear Program Despite International Pressures,” MEMRI, Inquiry and Analysis Series, #377, July 23, 2007.

63. Freeman, Colin and Philip Sherwell, “Iranian Fatwa Approves Use of Nuclear Weapons,” Sunday Telegraph (London), February 19, 2006, pg. 26.