Nuclear Stability in South Asia

This study, completed in 2001, examined ways to enhance nuclear stability on the subcontinent. The previous U.S. administration's approach to the issues of strategic stability in this region had been to attempt to persuade both India and Pakistan that their national security did not require the possession of nuclear weapons. For various reasons, both countries resisted such efforts and rejected U.S. entreaties to roll back their nuclear programs and join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as non-nuclear-weapons states.

The Institute has recently completed a study on ways to enhance nuclear stability on the subcontinent. The previous U.S. administration's approach to the issues of strategic stability in this region had been to attempt to persuade both India and Pakistan that their national security did not require the possession of nuclear weapons. For various reasons, both countries resisted such efforts and rejected U.S. entreaties to roll back their nuclear programs and join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as non-nuclear-weapons states.

Now that the testing threshold has been reached and passed, the confrontation between the two states has changed from one involving potential or suspected arsenals to a standoff with overt capabilities. The new U.S. administration recognized this change and was in the midst of reviewing its policies toward the region when the attacks on September 11 occurred. This affected the dynamics of U.S. relations to Pakistan and India significantly, but the underlying problem of a nuclear standoff, and the potential for escalation, has not changed.

The new U.S. administration recognized this change and was in the midst of reviewing its policies toward the region when the attacks on September 11 occurred. This affected the dynamics of U.S. relations to Pakistan and India significantly, but the underlying problem of a nuclear standoff, and the potential for escalation, has not changed.

Based on the likely scenario that India and Pakistan will operationalize their nuclear capabilities, the study produced a set of proposals for specific, prioritized measures to address the most destabilizing elements of an ongoing nuclear standoff between India and Pakistan. It also laid out a strategy of dialogue and negotiation to induce the two states to adopt and implement these measures.

The study includes the following elements:

A survey of the factors likely to contribute to continued development of nuclear weapons in the region and their ultimate deployment, and an analysis of the effect that such developments have on U.S. policy, along with new policy recommendations that focus on stability
An analysis of potential trends in nuclear weaponization, delivery capabilities, and doctrine
An examination of how these trends would affect the dynamics of likely future crises, resulting in the identification of potentially destabilizing developments
Measures to manage and stabilize the projected developments in South Asia's nuclear capabilities
A prioritization of policy recommendations, along with an assessment of their potential effectiveness
A strategy for engagement and negotiation to encourage commitment to the stabilizing measures by both states

The study's primary audience is the official and unofficial security policy communities in the United States, India, and Pakistan.

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