Pandemic Influenza

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The Pandemic Influenza Challenge:
Multilateral Perspectives on Preparedness, Response Planning, and Areas for Cooperation

IFPA announces the release of a new report on preparing for a possible pandemic influenza crisis, based in part on the results of an IFPA-led multilateral workshop held in Tokyo, Japan. This report reviews current international efforts to mitigate the potentially devastating impact of a pandemic influenza, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. It also examines the national and military planning efforts of the United States, Japan, and the Republic of Korea in addressing this emerging crisis, and it explores options for improved multilateral cooperation in disaster response planning.

Outbreaks of avian influenza among poultry and humans in Asia, Europe, and Africa have heightened public health concerns that a sustained human-to-human transmission of the disease is imminent. Epidemiological models estimate that if a pandemic influenza were to occur, it would paralyze the global economy, overwhelm international vaccine and antiviral supplies, cripple national healthcare systems, and disrupt social order. Although health experts are uncertain about the timing, virulence, and geographic scope of a future influenza pandemic, most agree that an avian flu pandemic could kill anywhere from 2 million to 7.4 million people worldwide and cost the world economy up to $2 trillion in economic losses. Billions have already been invested in preparing for this disease, and about 263 human cases have been reported between 2003 and 2006, of which 158 have been fatal – a 60 percent mortality rate.

In order to effectively combat an influenza virus with pandemic potential, ensure the equitable distribution of vaccines and antiviral medications, and reduce the economic and social impact of an outbreak, governments and their partners should prepare influenza pandemic plans at the national, regional, and international level, as well as test their planning efforts with simulations and tabletop exercises. Seeing this need, IFPA organized a pandemic influenza workshop in Tokyo to draw together government officials, military planners, and leading experts in the fields of public health, infectious disease, and biodefense policy from the United States, Japan, and the Republic of Korea to discuss the potential threat of a pandemic influenza in the Asia-Pacific region.

Policy makers and military experts who came together at the workshop shared national strategies and military response plans and explored options for augmenting a coordinated regional response to a possible avian flu outbreak in the Asia-Pacific theatre. Participants also discussed means to leverage existing partnerships, enhance interoperability, and integrate planning efforts in order to minimize the health and economic impact, including related security challenges and social implications, of a pandemic influenza contingency, and by extension, other natural disaster, pandemic disease, or biohazard events. Insights gained from the workshop have been integrated into this research report.

The event, Pandemic Influenza Workshop: Multilateral Perspectives on Preparedness, Response Planning, and Areas for Cooperation, was co-sponsored by the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, the Institute of World Studies at Takushoku University, and the United States Pacific Command (PACOM).