Security Issues in the Middle East
June 1999
Democracy and Security at the Crossroads
The central theme of the June 1999 report is the struggle between democracy and authoritarianism in several of the Middle Eastern states. The report weighs the results of the February local elections in Iran, in which opponents of clerical rule seemed to consolidate their influence on local politics. Whether the diffuse opposition to the conservative clerics will coalesce into a national moderate movement will become clearer as Iran nears the 2000 Majlis (parliamentary) elections. In the wake of scandal, meanwhile, the Kuwaiti emir dissolved parliament. In accordance with the constitution, he called new elections, while also publicly contemplating the enfranchisement of women for the 2003 elections. That said, the Sabah dynasty will not permit any democratic institutions to undermine its own prerogatives. It is a safe bet, declares the June report, that Western-style liberal democracy will not be the end product of these democratic innovations in the Persian Gulf. Indeed, preventing any devolution of power continues to be the top priority for most governments in the region. Saudi Arabia continues to resist fiercely any hint of democracy, having calculated that the survival of the Wahhabi regime depends on preserving the autocratic powers wielded by the king. For its part, Baghdad cracked down on Shiite dissidents in the south and moved army units into position near the Kurdish enclave to the north.
Whither U.S. policy in the Middle East? The June report indicates that the United States will press its campaign to undermine the Iraqi government pursuant to the 1998 Iraq Liberation Act. This effort is unlikely to succeed: Congress has appropriated a laughable sum for such an ambitious undertaking, while broad ethnic, religious, and ideological fault lines prevent united action by the Iraqi opposition. Short of overthrowing Saddam Hussein, the U.S. government will insist on preserving UN control of Iraqi oil revenues - its only leverage over Baghdad’s WMD programs now that the weapons inspection regime has collapsed. As the report went to print, a battle was brewing in the Security Council over competing draft resolutions on the sanctions regime. External to the Gulf region, the May elections in Israel brought a Labor prime minister, Ehud Barak, to office, raising hopes of a peace settlement with the Palestinians, Lebanon, and Syria. The visible U.S. role in the peace process would pay dividends for Washington’s Gulf policy should the new government resume negotiations (as Barak had pledged during the campaign). In view of these developments, the June report concludes that the outlook remains positive for energy security in the Persian Gulf region.
Questions regarding this report, the reports in genereal, or the Institute's work on energy security programs can be directed to Andrew C. Winner or Toshi Yoshihara
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