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Security Issues in the Middle East
September 2000 Quarterly Analysis
Succession and Stability
The September 2000 issue of Security Issues in the Middle East examines recent and anticipated leadership changes in the Gulf and surrounding area and discusses the possible effects of these changes. Recent changes, namely in Iran, Bahrain, Syria, Jordan, and Qatar, and the likelihood of additional short-term turnover in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, will see a new generation - in mindset if not in generation - of leadership take power. While traditional security issues relating to interstate war are at the moment fairly straightforward in the Gulf, the internal security of several of these states remains in question because of these leadership changes. Internal unrest resulting from a new sovereign's inability to control the power centers in his country could spill over and threaten the security of neighboring states. Predictions in this area are dangerous, but continuity in policies and stability is unlikely in every instance where a new leader assumes power. Each leadership change bears watching, giving particular attention to whether new kings and presidents can keep a firm grip on the increasingly restive centers of power in their states.
Questions regarding this report, the reports in general, or the Institute's work on energy security programs can be directed to Andrew C. Winner or Toshi Yoshihara.
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