MITI 12/1998

Security Issues in the Middle East
December 1998

In December 1998 IFPA issued the first in a series of reports on Middle East energy security for the Petroleum Energy Center of Japan’s Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI). Published on a quarterly basis under the Institute’s alliance with Energy Security Analysis, Inc. (ESAI) (www.esai.com), these reports evaluate recent politico-military developments in Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel and forecast the impact of these developments on the flow of vital oil supplies to Japan. Of particular interest are the security of major oil-producing states and the Persian Gulf sea lanes. The overarching goal of the project is to provide Japanese officials with the information and analysis they need to manage the nation’s strategic petroleum reserves.

Despite several issues that may generate frictions in the near term, the December 1998 report finds the overall security environment in the Middle East to be fairly benign in terms of direct threats to shipping and oil fields in the Gulf region. First, the report assesses Saddam Hussein’s strategy during the November confrontation between the United States and Iraq. Although U.S. military action was averted in that instance, the fact that Iraqi and U.S. objectives remain fundamentally at odds make renewed conflict a virtual certainty. The report projects that Iraq will attempt to generate international support for lifting the UN sanctions, and might deliberately provoke new clashes in order to force the issue. For its part, Washington will maintain its grip on Iraqi oil revenues, using its Security Council veto if necessary, and will seek to prevent Baghdad from resuming its bid to develop weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Acknowledging that sanctions and inspections have failed to prompt a regime change in Baghdad, the United States has also embarked on a more activist policy designed to overturn the government of Saddam Hussein. The report concludes that the standoff between Washington and Baghdad will continue.

Second, the December report scrutinizes recent events in Iran and predicts that moderates will continue to make headway under the tutelage of President Muhammed Khatami - auguring well for relations between the Islamic Republic and its neighbors. Barring a counterstroke by Khatami’s conservative antagonists, who dominate the foreign-policy apparatus and the security services, Tehran is likely to continue its recently inaugurated peace offensive.