December 1999
Geography remains a critical determinant of national security strategy for many governments in the Middle East. These states have either sought to offset disabilities or to exploit advantages imposed upon them by the tyranny of geography. Moreover, geostrategic imperatives, combined with technological advances, have induced the Middle Eastern countries to extend the reach and lethality of their military capabilities. The strategic orientation of Iran perhaps best exemplifies the tremendous influence that geographic complexities of the region often have on national security and military strategies. Iran's ambitious geostrategies mirror its pretensions to regional supremacy. The Islamic Republic has fielded unconventional forces (such as ballistic missiles) able to influence events in the Gulf and break the American stranglehold on its western flank. To the north, the collapse of the Soviet Union opened new vistas for the extension of Iranian influence. Tehran has forged cordial relations with many of the Caucasus and Central Asian republics such as Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, capitalizing on its status as the foremost exponent of Shiite Islam. Its pursuit of influence along the northern flank, however, has generated frictions with Turkey, which has its own ethnic and religious ties to the region. Meanwhile, Tehran has also been forced to keep a watchful eye on developments in Afghanistan, along the Islamic Republic's eastern flank. Indeed, acrimony between Tehran and the Taleban, the de facto government of Afghanistan, threatened to flare into armed conflict in late 1998. Clearly, Iranian statesmen must contend with a variety of challenges on many fronts as they strive to bolster the nation's sway over regional affairs.
Whither U.S. Forward Presence?
Defense Secretary Cohen reassured Gulf allies that American forces will maintain its military posture in the region "indefinitely" during his visit to the region in October 1999. However, shortly after his departure, news reports in Riyadh indicated that Saudi Arabia has been increasing pressure on the United States to diminish its military presence on the kingdom's soil. Mounting opposition from Riyadh has in turn forced defense planners to search for alternative ways to reduce American forces without eroding deterrent and warfighting capabilities. There is growing consensus among policymakers in the United States that the size and shape of America's forward deployment will not likely remain static. Once the enforcement of the no-fly zones over Iraq is lifted, Riyadh would likely request Washington's air assets to withdraw from permanent stationing at Saudi air bases. Since the kingdom currently hosts the largest air contingent in the Gulf, the termination of Operation Southern Watch could represent a major reduction of U.S. forces in the region. The recognition of this eventuality and widening pressures from its regional allies have led the U.S. regional combatant command, Central Command (CENTCOM), to reassess its force posture for the region. The United States is planning for a gradual reduction of forces and the construction of bases that are less visible. At the same time, assets removed from Gulf soil will be pre-positioned within striking range of the region either on the high seas or at other bases. The shift in force posture will ensure that Washington still can project sufficient power to reinforce its in-theater capabilities in the event of crisis, commonly known in defense parlance as an over-the-horizon posture.
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