Building on the Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group (TCOG)

Exploring the Prospects for Expanding the TCOG Process as a Key U.S.-South Korea and U.S.-Japan Alliance Management Tool

In September 2003 IFPA, in collaboration with leading policy research institutions in Japan and South Korea, received a generous grant from the Japan Foundation’s Center for Global Partnership (CGP) to begin work on a unique, two-year policy research project designed to strengthen the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-South Korea relationships and enhance regional stability by improving the tools for alliance management.

 

One of the most successful innovations in the area of U.S.-South Korea and U.S.-Japan alliance management was been the establishment and utilization of the Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group (TCOG) for developing common policies toward North Korea. This periodic meeting of high-level officials from the United States, South Korea, and Japan allowed the three governments to discuss together a range of options for dealing more effectively with North Korea, and it provided a hitherto absent forum for coordinating policies on a regular basis. The results included a better understanding among the three of each other’s policy objectives and methods for achieving them, a lessening of concern if ends or means do not exactly correspond, a coordination of policies toward the North, and a more unified voice in dealing with the regime in Pyongyang.

 

A key question that arose was the degree to which the TCOG process could and should be strengthened and/or adapted as a way to encourage trilateral coordination beyond issues of immediate North Korean policy and, by means of such coordination, to strengthen the two bilateral alliances and establish connecting threads between them – a development that was seen as essential if existing alliance structures were to evolve appropriately and thrive in the future.

Based on archival research and interviews with policy makers in all three countries, the project team prepared a set of practical recommendations for improving current TCOG processes and upgrading the mechanism to address at least one new trilateral policy concern (beyond short-term North Korea policy). The team then tested the recommendations by means of an exercise that simulated a TCOG-like meeting to further improve the usefulness of the recommendations and increase their prospects for near-term implementation.

 

New policy issue areas that could be usefully addressed by a TCOG-like mechanism included 1) crisis contingency planning, such as planning how to respond to a collapse or disappearance of government control in North Korea; 2) longer-term policy planning, such as the impact on alliance planning and associated security postures of changes being triggered by the much discussed transformation of the U.S. military, especially with respect to alternative basing options and force structure requirements in the region; 3) institution building, such as the prospects for closer coordination on regional and global arms control, including broader bilateral, trilateral, and multilateral efforts to stem the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in Asia, and other issues.

The project plan had a research phase (a detailed examination – including interviews with past and current policy makers – of the history, workings, and views on the strengths and weaknesses of the TCOG mechanism) and an implementation phase (actually testing the ability of an enhanced TCOG mechanism to deal with new areas of policy development and coordination by conducting a simulated TCOG meeting on a new – though possibly North Korea related - policy issue). The involvement of past and current policy makers facilitated consideration of the project's recommendations, and wider dissemination outside of government circles was achieved through two interim reports, two public events, and a final project monograph.

“Building on the TCOG” Project Team

The Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis led the research project in collaboration with the Japan Forum on International Relations (JFIR) in Tokyo and Yonsei University’s Graduate School of International Studies (GSIS) in Seoul. The IFPA team benefitted from the involvement at key times of a special advisor, former U.S. ambassador to South Korea, Stephen W. Bosworth (now dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, with which IFPA is associated). The Japanese and South Korean members of the project team also benefitted at appropriate times from the support of a special advisor: on the Japan side, former ambassador to the United States Yoshio Okawara (and currently chairman of the Global Forum of Japan), and on the South Korean side, Ambassador Choi Young-jin (chancellor of the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, which is affiliated with the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Trade).

 

For more information please contact James L. Schoff, associate director of Asia-Pacific studies.
617-492-2116, ext. 223
JSchoff@ifpa.org