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South Asia

The September 2001 report is devoted to policy issues regarding weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in South Asia. Three main areas are addressed:

The question of ongoing or further horizontal proliferation. Of immediate concern is the supply of nuclear and missile-related materials from China and North Korea to Pakistan, and the potential for horizontal proliferation of nuclear capabilities from India and Pakistan.
Nonproliferation policy: how to uphold global nonproliferation norms as the United States goes about developing broader and deeper relations with the two states that have nuclear weapons but that Washington does not wish to to see recognized as de jure nuclear weapons states.
Stability on the subcontinent, both strategic (or arms race) stability and crisis stability (reducing the probability of escalation to the nuclear level in future crises).

The report also inlcudes a chapter each on India and Pakistan, discussing their domestic politics, economies, and defense and readiness issues.

Europe

The spring 2002 report, The Strategic and Operational Implications of NATO Enlargement in the Baltic Region, is a white paper that covers the strategic and operational implications of NATO enlargement in the Baltic region (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia). As the September 11, 2001, attacks made plain, the range of global challenges to the interests of the United States and the West is on the rise after a decade of comparative quiet following the end of the Cold War. NATO can and should remain an essential tool for coordinating both political and military action within the Euro-Atlantic community. However, the Alliance’s relevance and effectiveness will be determined by its ability to adapt to the new security setting and by the willingness of its members to make sound choices about the Alliance’s enlargement and internal restructuring. The November 2002 Prague Summit was a pivotal milestone in this regard.

As part of IFPA's ongoing efforts to provide timely analysis on NATO-related issues, the report examines a central element of the enlargement debate: the potential consequences of Baltic membership -- both for NATO itself and for U.S. national interests. It provides a brief overview of the issues surrounding enlargement along NATO’s northern flank and offers a frank assessment of the costs and benefits of offering Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania invitations at Prague.

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Issues explored include:

The strategic costs of Baltic states' membership in NATO: what are the current security challenges in the region and what would their operational consequences be for NATO?
Possible future threats to the Baltic region and how to repond to them: in the unlikely event that Russia reverted to an openly antagonistic, anti-Western stance, how would NATO and U.S. forces respond to a major Russian military challenge to its Baltic neighbors?
The implications of various enlargement scenarios where one, two, or all three Baltic states are invited to join NATO

download white paper

The Persian Gulf

Fall 2002

As part of its ongoing effort to explore strategic and operational issues related to U.S. interests in the Middle East and Central Asia, IFPA is currently preparing a major report examining developments in the region in the post-9/11 world. The report will examine both region-wide trends and developments in specific countries, with an eye towards assessing the impact on the U.S. ability to pursue the war on terror and to defend its vital interests in the region. Various factors that could affect the Middle East and Central Asian security environment, including regime change, the results of U.S. military action, changes to U.S. basing and access, and, most importantly, the ongoing proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), will be addressed in detail. The goal of the report will to provide policymakers with a holistic assessment of the security environment in the greater Middle East and how it will affect U.S. ability to pursue its policy objectives in the years ahead.

Summer 1999

The summer 1999 report examines the security concerns and defense priorities of the six Persian Gulf countries making up the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Particular emphasis is given to the range of proliferation-related threats likely to confront the GCC countries in the years ahead, especially those associated with the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and means of delivery within the broader Persian Gulf and Southwest Asia regions. For each GCC country, the report examines:

The perception of threats to its national security
The history of politico-military interaction with the United States
The domestic political, economic, and cultural factors influencing security and defense planning
The view of the GCC's role in national security planning
An assessment of the WMD threat

The report also addresses the prospects for common and collaborative approaches to counterproliferation on a GCC-wide basis and the implications of the above for U.S. military planning and overall posture in the Gulf.