Enhancing Joint Crisis Management Capabilities: Issues and Policy Options for Japan-U.S. Cooperation

In June 2000, IFPA and the Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP) launched a joint two-year study called Enhancing Joint Crisis Management Capabilities: Issues and Policy Options for Japan-U.S. Cooperation. The study will examine issues and policy options on joint crisis management between Japan and the United States. Through a series of case studies, the project will explore how Tokyo and Washington can better prepare for and respond to an array of crisis scenarios ranging from traditional security threats to emerging challenges. The study will also anticipate the multiplicity of organizational and policy implications of a joint response to future crises.

 

In the last decade of the twentieth century, Japan confronted a series of crises that tested the response capabilities of the government and the nation at large. Unfortunately, Japan's record on crisis management to date has been far from satisfactory. The sarin gas attack in Tokyo, the Hanshin earthquake, and the recent Tokai nuclear accident underscored the deficiencies in the government's ability to manage major contingencies. This has in turn fueled a serious crisis of confidence in government among the Japanese public. The mismanagement of these various events has resulted in a growing consensus within Japan that the political leadership, together with all the relevant administrative authorities, must build upon and enhance their capabilities for crisis management.

 

Similarly, crisis management issues have emerged as an increasingly prominent task within the United States. In May 1997, the White House issued Presidential Decision Directive 56 that called on the relevant agencies to plan for complex contingency operations. Washington has just recently focused its efforts on counterproliferation and consequence management programs to prevent and prepare for the use of weapons of mass destruction against the American homeland and critical U.S. assets abroad, including forward-deployed forces such as those in Japan. The National Security Council, spearheading an interagency effort, is developing plans to work closely with the private sector to prepare for and combat cyber terrorism, which could result in major economic loss and dislocation. These activities reflect the clear recognition that future crises are likely to differ dramatically from Cold War threats and that they will have a broader, direct, and more complex impact on the United States, especially on a commercial sector that has become increasingly dependent on information technologies. U.S. planning and preparation for crisis contingencies, however, are in their infancy and only now beginning to coalesce.

 

Clearly, then, robust crisis management systems must be developed further for both Japan and the United States as new threats emerge. More importantly, Tokyo and Washington must coordinate their efforts closely to gird for future crises. Given the diversity of threats and the rigorous preparation required to respond effectively to potential crises, there is a critical need to reassess Japan's crisis management system and simultaneously bolster America's own fledgling efforts. Both states must begin a concerted and coordinated effort now to manage future crises, which will be increasingly regional and global in scale.

 

In an effort to initiate a collaborative approach to crisis management between Tokyo and Washington, IFPA and OSIPP will conduct a transpacific study that provides an analytical framework for understanding and implementing joint Japan-U.S. cooperation. The project will facilitate extensive dialogue and study on enhancing crisis management capacities both within and between Japan and the United States. A comparative analysis that identifies the strengths and weaknesses, as well as the successes and failures, in crisis management strategies will also provide useful insights on the nature of the emerging threats and the required responses. More importantly, a concrete set of policy recommendations will provide an invaluable roadmap for the way ahead.

 

A series of case studies examining past and potential future crises will guide the analytical focus of the project. These case studies are intended to illustrate the full range of threats and the varying policy challenges that both Japan and the United States are likely to face. While it is impossible to cover every issue of merit, case studies for the following contingencies will provide a comprehensive picture of what should be done to develop joint U.S.-Japanese crisis management planning and capabilities:

• Financial Crisis. The volatility of the global capital markets as exemplified by the Asian financial crisis and the high stakes involved for both the United States and Japan accentuate the need to examine joint approaches to financial crisis.
• Environmental Crises. Coping with environmental disasters in the Asia-Pacific will become increasingly critical crisis management tasks. For example, the transshipment of nuclear waste between China and Taiwan is highly relevant to Japan. In addition, an environmental crisis case study with a military dimension could entail a disabled South Korean tanker off the shores of Okinawa. Suspicions that a mine or a torpedo caused the accident could severely complicate Japan's efforts in search and rescue and oil spill containment.
• Incidents on the High Seas. Incidents on the high seas, where issues of national and international jurisdiction are often very complex, will also be the focus of the project. For example, the unauthorized entry of North Korean ships and submarines into Japan's territorial seas have recently dominated the thinking of Japanese strategists and defense planners. This case study will examine how Japan's civilian and military maritime agencies along with South Korean authorities could jointly cope with such future incidents.
• Refugee Crisis. A North Korean case study will provide an opportunity to explore disasters stemming from political-military incidents. War on the peninsula, regime collapse, or severe famine could lead to tremendous flows of refugees into China, South Korea, and the surrounding seas toward Japan. Joint crisis response in such a scenario-ensuring that Japan can become involved meaningfully-would require close trilateral coordination between South Korea, Japan, and the United States (and possibly China).
• Terrorism. A case study on terrorism might examine how the Japanese government can prepare for potential attacks against key facilities such as nuclear power plants and U.S. military bases by domestic dissidents or North Korean-sponsored commandos. A thorough and systematic assessment of how the Japanese government together with the United States could heighten joint response capabilities at both civilian and military levels will be particularly timely.
• Cyber Warfare. In the age of the information revolution, terrorism has now manifested itself in the form of cyber warfare. A recent series of serious attacks against Japanese government websites by pro-Chinese hackers protesting against a Japanese right ring rally highlighted the vulnerability of Japan's information-based infrastructure. Given that the United States has recently begun to actively study civilian and military defenses against cyber warfare, a case study on joint approaches between Tokyo and Washington will be particularly timely.
• Natural Disasters. Given Japan's management of the Hanshin earthquake, a case study on the massive earthquakes in Taiwan or Turkey would provide an excellent opportunity to examine the range of skills, capabilities, and assets that other countries have brought to bear during natural disasters. Such a case study would also explore how these countries have coordinated with the international community in coping with such crises.
• Crisis Prevention. While not all contingencies, such as natural disasters, can be headed off, prevention in the context of crisis management encompasses a broad range of activities and measures aimed at lessening the impact of a crisis and strengthening the nation's response capabilities. Early planning, reforming and restructuring institutions, and streamlining logistics are all integral aspects of crisis prevention. Hence, providing an analytical framework for planning and implementing crisis prevention will be an integral part of the study.

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