David R. Tanks
April 1997
What Are the Policy and Technology Challenges?
| Foreword | iii |
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| Executive Summary | v |
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| Chapter 1: | Understanding the Problem | 1.1 |
| Introduction | 1.1 |
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| Assumptions | 1.2 |
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| The Migration of Knowledge and the Spread of Manufacturing Infrastructure | 1.3 |
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| The Leakage of Armaments and Advanced Technologies | 1.5 |
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| The Future Strategic Environment | 1.7 |
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| ICBM Developmental Challenges | 1.9 |
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| The Cruise Issue | 1.11 |
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| Summary of Potential Challenges | 1.11 |
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| Countermeasures to Anticipated U.S. Missile Defenses | 1.12 |
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| Conclusions | 1.14 |
| Chapter 2: | Russia: Friend, Foe, or Accidental Threat? | 2.1 |
| Strategic Setting | 2.1 |
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| Russia's Apparent National Objectives | 2.2 |
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| Russia's Ballistic Missile Development Activities | 2.4 |
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| Russia's Technology Transfer Potential | 2.7 |
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| Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and Missile Systems | 2.13 |
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| Security of Russia's Strategic Missile Force | 2.21 |
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| Conclusions | 2.23 |
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| Chapter 3: | China and the Northeast Asian Powers: The Great Challenge of Tomorrow? | 3.1 |
| Introduction | 3.1 |
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| Korea, the Paradox in Northeast Asia's Future? | 3.2 |
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| Japan, the Dark Horse of East Asia | 3.6 |
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| China, the Great Conundrum Of the 21st Century? | 3.8 |
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| China's Apparent National Objectives | 3.10 |
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| China's Security Concerns | 3.14 |
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| China's General Military Modernization Efforts | 3.16 |
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| Apparent Ballistic Missile Developments | 3.17 |
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| Future Strategic Direction | 3.30 |
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| China's Technology Transfer Potential | 3.32 |
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| Proliferation: Weighing China's Apparent Contributions | 3.34 |
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| Conclusions | 3.37 |
| Chapter 4: | From India to North Africa: Sowing A Missile Crop | 4.1 |
| India: Great Hopes, Limited Means--A Surprise In The Offing? | 4.2 |
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| India's Apparent National Objectives | 4.4 |
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| India's General Military Situation | 4.13 |
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| Apparent Missile Developments | 4.14 |
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| India's Potential As a Source of Proliferation | 4.24 |
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| Conclusions: India | 4.26 |
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| Pakistan: A Gateway to Westward Proliferation? | 4.26 |
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| Pakistan and the "Bomb" | 4.32 |
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| Looking at the Missile Issue | 4.36 |
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| Pakistan as a Proliferator | 4.38 |
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| Iran: Headed for a National Deterrent? | 4.40 |
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| Iran's Security Policy Objectives | 4.42 |
| Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) | 4.42 |
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| Iranian Missiles: A Sought-After Capability | 4.47 |
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| Iran Conclusions | 4.49 |
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| Iraq: Awaiting Resurrection | 4.49 |
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| Syria | 4.50 |
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| Other Players | 4.52 |
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| Conclusions | 4.52 |
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| Chapter 5: | Assessing the U.S. Missile Defense Program | 5.1 |
| Introduction | 5.1 |
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| Ballistic Missile Penetration Options | 5.2 |
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| Assessing the Target Array | 5.7 |
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| U.S. Missile Defense Program | 5.10 |
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| Future Missile Defense Program Requirements | 5.16 |
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| Other Technology-Related Issues | 5.23 |
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| Organizational Considerations | 5.23 |
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| Conclusions | 5.26 |
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| Chapter 6: | Findings and Recommendations | 6.1 |
| Findings | 6.2 |
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| Recommendations | 6.9 |
Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA), Inc., all rights reserved
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