Security Issues in the Middle East
June 2002
| While non-state actors will be playing larger roles than ever before in shaping the future of the Middle East, several key states will still have substantial influence in responding to cataclysmic events such as terrorist attacks. |
The policies of those states will determine the ultimate political shape of the region when the fighting eventually stops. Over the next one to two years, the key states that will determine the region's fate will be Iraq, Israel, and the United States.
While some may argue that other influential Arab states such as Egypt or Saudi Arabia will matter, their policies will likely be reactive. It will be the actions taken by Washington, Baghdad, and Tel Aviv that will determine what happens, when it occurs, and what will be the shape of the region when the fighting winds down.
What, then, are the key indicators to look for to be able to anticpate both the the timing of the next impulse of violence and the contours of the political environment when it is over? The June 2002 Security Issues in the Middle East turns a weather eye to this question, and updates the reader on the continuing fallout in the region from the September 11 attacks and the Israeli-Palestinian confrontation.
MITI June 2002 PDF Download - 302KB
