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Security Issues in the Middle East
September 2002
Is the Bush administration engaging in coercive diplomacy or is it really going to attack Iraq? The second possibilty could follow the first, with a failure of coercive diplomacy resulting in war. President Bush's speech to the nation on the anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States and his address to the United Nations General Assembly the next day provide evidence for each possibility, but the smart betting is that war in the Persian Gulf has a better than 75 percent chance of occurring in the next six months.