MITI 03/1999

The March 1999 report assesses the effectiveness of Operation Desert Fox within the overall context of U.S. policy and examines the diplomatic fallout of the bombing campaign in the Gulf states. Desert Fox, the report declares, inflicted only modest damage on Iraqi forces while contributing little to U.S. political and strategic objectives in the Persian Gulf. Indeed, the operation seemingly emboldened Saddam Hussein to expel UNSCOM, the UN weapons inspection team, and attack the sanctions regime with renewed ferocity. The March report also assesses the administration's plans to overthrow Hussein. For several reasons, most prominently meager resources, the non-military nature of the U.S. aid, and the highly fragmented nature of the Iraqi opposition, the report predicts that Washington's rollback strategy will be ineffective. Nonetheless, while the United States is unlikely to succeed at overthrowing the Iraqi government, neither will Saddam Hussein be able to carry out his threats to attack his neighbors. Hence the protracted standoff between Washington and Baghdad is likely to continue for the near future.

The period after Desert Fox has also witnessed something of a revolution in Saudi foreign policy, as Riyadh has quietly begun to back a change of regime in Iraq. The Saudi government has been forced to be cautious about this policy shift because of domestic opposition to the air strikes. Hence Riyadh has distanced itself publicly from the military action - reminding observers that U.S. aircraft are forbidden to launch attacks from Saudi bases - while privately welcoming its effects.

The report also includes an analysis of electoral politics in Iran and Israel. It maintains that the advance of moderation in the Islamic Republic bodes well for the security of the Gulf region. Nonetheless, Iran will continue its quest to become the dominant power in the region, regardless of whether Khatami's reforms succeed or fail. Finally, the report observes that a Labor government in Israel would be more likely than the current Likud government to revive the stalled peace process. Because progress in the peace process boosts the prestige of the United States with the Gulf Arabs, then, a Labor victory would be welcome news for the Clinton administration.

The report concludes that Iraq will remain in check as long as U.S. forces remain in the Gulf; that a revived peace process would reinforce U.S. policy in the Gulf; and that, for the present at least, Iran has little interest in causing trouble in the Gulf region. Hence there is little danger that Japanese oil shipments would be interrupted in the near term.

Questions regarding this report, thr reports in general, or the Institute's work on energy security programs can be directed to Andrew C. Winner or Toshi Yoshihara.