Weighing the Consequences of China’s Control over the South China Sea

Selected Readings

Reports, News Articles & Commentaries
Governmental Publications & Official Testimony
  • Reports, News Articles & Commentaries

    Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, “Tracking China's Coast Guard off Borneo,” AMTI Brief, April 5, 2017.
    Available online

    ———, “China’s Big Three Near Completion,” March 27, 2017.
    Available online

    ———, “Another Piece of the Puzzle,” February 22, 2016.
    Available online

    Ross Babbage, Countering China’s Adventurism in the South China Sea:  Strategy Options for the Trump Administration, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, Washington, D.C., 2016.
    Available online

    Jake Bebber, “American Strategy in the 21st Century: Maritime Power and China, Part II,” Center for International Maritime Security, October 16, 2014.

    Dennis Blair, Assertive Engagement: An Updated U.S.-Japan Strategy for China, Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA, 2016.

    ———, “Operational Impacts of Japan’s New Security Strategy and Capabilities on the U.S-Japan Alliance,” remarks at a U.S.-Japan Security Forum organized by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA in Washington, D.C., April 30, 2014.

    Dennis Blair and Jeffrey Hornung, “South China Sea: How to Prevent China From Changing the Status Quo,” The Diplomat, September 23, 2016.
    Avaliable online

    John Bradford et al., Maritime Security in Southeast Asia: U.S., Japanese, Regional, and Industry Strategies, NBR Special Report, no. 24, National Bureau of Asian Research, November 2010.

    Kelsey Broderick, “Chinese Activities in the South China Sea: Implications for the American Pivot to Asia,” Project 2049 Institute, May 2015.

    General Herbert “Hawk” Carlisle, USAF, “PACAF Strategy in the Asia-Pacific Region,” presentation at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington, D.C., May 5, 2014.

    Christopher Cavas, “China’s Little Blue Men Take Navy’s Place in Disputes,” Defense News, November 2, 2015.

    “China Welcomes Mattis’ Emphasis on South China Sea Diplomacy,” February 6, 2017, Reuters.
    Available online

    “China Wraps Up Exercise with Three Warships in South China Sea,” Reuters, February 17, 2017.
    Available online

    “China's Coast Guard Cause Most South China Sea Clashes, US Report Finds,” Reuters, September 6, 2016.
    Available online

    Bryan Clark et al., Restoring American Seapower: A New Fleet Architecture for the United States Navy, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, February 9, 2017.
    Available online

    Koh Swee Lean Collin, “Vietnam’s Got a New South China Sea Strategy,” The National Interest, February 16, 2017.
    Available online

    Helene Cooper, “Jockeying for Leverage in the South China Sea,” International New York Times, March 31, 2016.

    Charmaine Deogracias, “ASEAN’s 50th Year Agenda: Beyond the South China Sea?” ASEAN News, February 28, 2017.
    Available online

    Perry Diaz, “Chinese Dream: Beyond the First Island Chain,” Global Balita, December 1, 2013.

    Jean-Yves le Drian, “Advancing Defense Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific,” speech at Shangri-La Dialogue, fifth plenary session, 2013.

    Peter Dutton and Ryan Martinson, “Beyond the Wall: Chinese Far Seas Operations,” China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College, May 2015.

    Peter Dutton et al., “China’s Near Sea Combat Capabilities,” China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College, February 2014.

    Andrew S. Erickson, “Chinese Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Development and Counter-intervention Efforts,” testimony before Hearing on China’s Advanced Weapons Panel I: China’s Hypersonic and Maneuverable Re-Entry Vehicle Programs, U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Washington, DC, February 23, 2017.
    Download PDF

    Andrew S. Erickson and Conor M. Kennedy, “China's Maritime Militia: What It Is and How to Deal With It,” Foreign Affairs, June 23, 2016.

    Andrew Erickson and Joel Wuthnow, “Barriers, Springboards, and Benchmarks: China Conceptualizes the Pacific ‘Island Chains,’” February 2016.

    Richard D. Fisher, Jr., “Chinese Bomber Exercise Affirms Air-Defense Identification Zone, Penetrates Second Island Chain,” IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, November 30, 2015.

    Michele Flournoy and Ely Ratner, “China’s Territorial Advances Must be Kept in Check by the United States,” Washington Post, July 4, 2014.

    Bill Gertz, “Chinese Submarine Stalked U.S. Aircraft Carrier,” Washington Free Beacon, November 3, 2015.

    Jason Glab, “Blockading China: A Guide,” War on the Rocks, October 1, 2013.

    David C. Gompert et al., War with China: Thinking Through the Unthinkable, RAND Corporation, 2016.

    Bonnie Glaser, “Conflict in the South China Sea,” Contingency Planning Memorandum Update, Council on Foreign Relations Press, April 2015.
    Available online

    ———, “Armed Clash in the South China Sea,” Contingency Planning Memorandum no. 14, Council on Foreign Relations Press, April 2012.
    Available online

    Franz-Stefan Gady, “China’s Aircraft Carrier Testing Weapons in South China Sea,” The Diplomat, January 5, 2017.
    Available online

    Michael Green et al., Asia-Pacific Rebalance 2025: Capabilities, Presence, and Partnerships, an Independent Review of U.S. Defense Strategy in the Asia-Pacific, Center for Strategic and International Studies, January 2016.

    T.X. Hammes, “Offshore Control: A Proposed Strategy for an Unlikely Conflict,” Strategic Forum, National Defense University, June 2012.
    Download PDF

    Peter Hartcher, “South China Sea: The Fight China Will Take to the Brink of War,” Sydney Morning Herald, April 26, 2016.

    Eric Heginbotham et al., The U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power, 1996-2017, RAND, 2015.

    Richard Javad Heydarian, “Why Asia Is Trembling over a U.S.-China South China Sea Showdown,” The National Interest, February 23, 2017.
    Available online

    James Holmes, “Face Off: How America Can REALLY Stop China’s Navy,” The National Interest, October 5, 2015.

    ———, “Strategic Features of the South China Sea: A Tough Neighborhood for Hegemons,” Naval War College Review 67, no. 2, Spring 2014.

    James R. Holmes and Toshi Yoshihara, “Taking Stock of China’s Growing Navy: The Death and Life of Surface Fleets,” Orbis, Spring 2017.
    Available online

    “Indonesia to Raise Prospect of Joint Patrols with Australia in South China Sea,” Reuters, February 23, 2017.
    Available online

    Christopher K. Johnson, “Counter-Coercion Strategies: Assessing U.S. Next Steps in Maritime Asia,” presentation at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C., November 16, 2015.

    Jonathan Kaiman, “China is Building a Second Aircraft Carrier in a Bid to Project Power,” Los Angeles Times, December 31, 2015.

    Harnit Kang, “Maritime Issues in South China Sea: A Survey of Literature,” Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, June 2009.

    Robert Kaplan, “Why the South China Sea Is So Crucial,” Business Insider, February 20, 2015.

    Harry J. Kazianis, “Why China Could Declare a South China Sea ADIZ Right About Now,” Asia Times, February 1, 2017.
    Available online

    ———, “The U.S. Navy’s Real Challenge: An Anti-access ‘Swarm’ Strike,” Asia Times, February 25, 2016.

    Akimoto Kazumine, “The Strategic Value of Territorial Islands from the Perspective of National Security,” Review of Island Studies, October 9, 2013.

    Conor M. Kennedy and Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Third Sea Force, The People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia: Tethered to the PLA,” China Maritime Report, no. 1 (March 2017), China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College, Newport, RI.
    Available online

    Andrew Krepinevich, “How to Deter China: The Case for Archipelagic Defense,” Foreign Affairs 94, no. 2, March-April 2015.

    Nobuhiro Kubo, “Japan to Speed Up Frigate Build to Reinforce East China Sea,” Reuters, February 17, 2017.
    Available online

    Kyodo and Kristin Kwok, “China Could Be About to Respond to the U.S.’s Asia Pivot,” Business Insider, August 3, 2015.

    Sam Lagrone, “U.S. Pacific Commander: Chinese Spy Ship Off Hawaii Has an Upside,” USNI News, July 29, 2014.

    David Larter, “The Navy Is Planning Fresh Challenges to China’s Claims in the South China Sea,” Navy Times, February 12, 2017.
    Available online

    Kevin X. Li and Jin Cheng. “Maritime Law and Policy for Energy Security in Asia: A Chinese Perspective,” Journal of Maritime Law and Commerce 37, no. 4, October 2006.

    Satu Limaye and Tsutomu Kikuchi, U.S.-Japan Relations and Southeast Asia: Meeting Regional Demands, project report, East-West Center, 2016.

    Dan de Luce, “Lawmakers to White House: Get Tough with Beijing over South China Sea,” Foreign Policy, April 27, 2016.

    Dan de Luce and Keith Johnson, “How FP Stumbled into a War with China—and Lost,” Foreign Policy, January 15, 2016.
    Available online

    Paul Lushenko and Jon Lushenko, “PACOM’s Role in Sustaining Indo-Asia-Pacific Security,” Asia Pacific Bulletin, no. 328, November 4, 2015.

    Thomas G. Mahnken and Dan Blumenthal, eds., Strategy in Asia: The Past, Present, and Future of Regional Security, Stanford University Press, 2014.

    Jun Mai, “Chinese Jets Training with Missiles Fly By Disputed South China Sea Waters Near Vietnam in New Response to U.S. Warships,” South China Morning Post, November 2, 2015.

    Oriana Skylar Mastro, “Why Chinese Assertiveness Is Here to Stay,” Washington Quarterly 37, no. 4, Winter 2015.

    John McCain, “America Needs More Than Symbolic Gestures in the South China Sea,” Financial Times, April 12, 2016.

    RADM Michael McDevitt, USN (Ret.), “U.S. South China Sea Policy 2015-2016: The Growing Role of the Defense Department,” CNA Corporation, July 12, 2016.

    Michael McDevitt, “The South China Sea: Assessing U.S. Policy and Options for the Future,” CNA Corporation, November 2014.

    Wendell Minnick, “China Expands Reach with Fighter Aircraft on Woody Island,” Defense News, November 8, 2015.

    Sean Mirski, “Stranglehold: The Context, Conduct, and Consequences of an American Naval Blockade of China,” Journal of Strategic Studies 36, no. 3, 2013.

    MITRE Corporation, Navy Future Fleet Platform Architecture Study, July 2016.
    Download PDF

    Kyle Mizokami, “What Makes China’s Fake Island Military Bases in the South China Sea So Dangerous,” The National Interest, February 12, 2017.
    Available online

    ———, “China vs. America: Who Would Win the Battle of the South China Sea?” National Interest, June 5, 2016.
    Available online

    Evan B. Montgomery, “Reinforcing the Front Line: U.S. Defense Strategy and the Rise of China,” Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2017.
    Available online

    Lyle J. Morris, “The New ‘Normal’ in the East China Sea,” The Diplomat, February 24, 2017.
    Available online 

    Katharine Murphy, “Malcolm Turnbull Shrugs Off U.S. Concern over Darwin Port Lease to Chinese Firm,” The Guardian, November 18, 2015.

    Shankaran Nambiar, “U.S. Economic Ties to ASEAN Demand a New Agility,” Asia Pacific Bulletin, no. 338, April 5, 2016.

    Quoc-Thanh Nguyen, “Vietnam’s Energy Exports Could Help Rebuild Ties with China,” The Diplomat, February 28, 2017.
    Available online

    Pierre Noel, “Asia’s Energy Supply and Maritime Security,” Survival 56, no. 3, June-July 2014, 201–216.

    Observer Research Foundation, South China Sea 6, no.3, March 8, 2017.
    Available online

    Cheol Hee Park, “Still Distant Neighbors: South Korea-Japan Relations Fifty Years after Diplomatic Normalization,” Council on Foreign Relations, December 2015.

    Richard Pearson, ed., East China Sea Tensions: Perspectives and Implications, Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation, 2014.

    Matthew Pennington, “Minister: Japan to Increase Activities in South China Sea,” Associated Press, September 16, 2016.
    Available online

    Michael Pilger, “China’s New YJ-18 Antiship Cruise Missile: Capabilities and Implications for U.S. Forces in the Western Pacific,” U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission Staff Research Report, October 28, 2015.

    Xu Qi, “Maritime Geostrategy and the Development of the Chinese Navy in the Early Twenty-first Century,” Naval War College Review 59, no. 4, Autumn 2006.

    Raissa Robles, “Duterte Plays a Dangerous Game in the South China Sea,” South China Morning Post, February 27, 2017.
    Available online

    Missy Ryan and Dan Lamothe, “Chinese Naval Ships Came within 12 Nautical Miles of American Soil,” Washington Post, September 4, 2015.

    Amy Searight and Geoffrey Hartman, “Donald Trump’s Huge South China Sea Problem (And What to Do About It),” The National Interest, February 8, 2017.
    Available online

    ———, “South China Sea Guidelines for the New Administration,” cogitASIA, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C., January 27, 2017.
    Available online

    Jamie Seidel, “War with China - Analysts Ask 'What If?'” New Zealand Herald, July 13, 2016.
    Available online

    Thomas Shugart, “Has China Been Practicing Preemptive Missile Strikes Against U.S. Bases?” War on the Rocks, February 6, 2017.
    Available online

    ———, "China's Artificial Islands Are Bigger (and a Bigger Deal) Than You Think," War on the Rocks, September 21, 2016.
    Download PDF

    Nick Simeon, “SOUTHCOM Chief Warns Budget Cuts Could Affect National Security,” American Forces Press Service, March 19, 2013.

    Peter Swartz, American Naval Policy, Strategy, Plans and Operations in the Second Decade of the Twenty-first Century, CNA, January 2017.
    Download PDF

    “The Third U.S. Offset Strategy and Its Implications for Partners and Allies,” as delivered by Bob Work, Deputy Secretary of Defense, U.S. Department of Defense, January 28, 2015.

    Shannon Tiezzi, “The Truth About U.S. Freedom of Navigation Patrols in the South China Sea,” The Diplomat, September 22, 2015.

    ———, “China Pushes ‘Maritime Silk Road’ in South, Southeast Asia,” The Diplomat, September 17, 2014.

    Ashley Townshend and Rory Metcalf, “Shifting Waters: China’s New Passive Assertiveness in Asian Maritime Security,” Lowy Institute, April 2016.

    U.S. Department of Defense, “The Third U.S. Offset Strategy and Its Implications for Partners and Allies,” as delivered by Bob Work, Deputy Secretary of Defense, January 28, 2015.

    U.S. Department of Defense, Navy Project Team, Alternative Future Fleet Platform Architecture Study, Report to Congress, October 27, 2016.
    Download PDF

    Alexander L. Vuving, “How America Can Take Control in the South China Sea,” Foreign Policy, February 13, 2017.
    Available online

    “Who Rules the Waves?: China No Longer Accepts That America Should Be Asia-Pacific’s Dominant Naval Power,” The Economist, October 17, 2015.

    Toshi Yoshihara, “China’s Vision of Its Seascape: The First Island Chain and Chinese Seapower,” Asian Politics and Policy 4, no. 3, 2012, pp. 293-314.

    Toshi Yoshihara and James Holmes, “Responding to China’s Rising Sea Power,” Orbis, Winter 2017.
    Available online

    ———, Red Star Over the Pacific: China’s Rise and the Challenge to U.S. Maritime Strategy, Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2010.

    Shirong Zhang, “The Taiwan Question Is the Core Content of China’s National Security in the Early 21st Century,” Journal of Yinchuan Municipal Party Congress, 2006.

  • Governmental Publications & Official Testimony

    David Berteau and Michael Green, “U.S. Force Posture Strategy in the Asia Pacific Region: An Independent Assessment,” statement before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Readiness, August 1, 2012.

    Bryan Clark, testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Reshaping the Military, February 16, 2017.
    Available online

    Roger Cliff, “Anti-Access Measures in Chinese Defense Strategy,” testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, January 27, 2011.

    Abraham M. Denmark, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia, testimony before the House Armed Services Committee Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific Hearing, “South China Sea Maritime Disputes,” Washington, D.C., July 7, 2016.

    Thomas M. Donnelly, testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Reshaping the Military, February 16, 2017.
    Available online

    Andrew S. Erickson, “The South China Sea’s Third Force: Understanding and Countering China’s Maritime Militia,” testimony before the Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee Hearing on Seapower and Projection Forces in the South China Sea, September 21, 2016.
    Download PDF

    Bonnie S. Glaser, testimony before the Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee Hearing on Seapower and Projection Forces in the South China Sea, September 21, 2016.

    Government of Australia, 2016 Defense White Paper, Commonwealth of Australia Department of Defense, 2016
    PDF download

    Government of Japan, Ministry of Defense, China’s Activities in the South China Sea, December 22, 2015
    PDF download

    Admiral Harry B. Harris, Jr., U.S. Navy Commander, U.S. Pacific Command, statement before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Maritime Security Strategy in the Asia-Pacific Region. September 17, 2015.

    James Kraska, statement before the Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee Hearing on Seapower and Projection Forces in the South China Sea, September 21, 2016.
    Download PDF

    Testimony by David A. Ochmanek before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Reshaping the Military, February 16, 2017.
    Available online

    CAPT Stacy Pedrozo, JAGC, USN, “China’s Active Defense Strategy and Its Regional Impact,” statement before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Commission, First Session, 112th Congress, January 27, 2011.

    AMB David Shear, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs, testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Maritime Security Strategy in the Asia-Pacific Region, September 17, 2015.

    James P. Thomas, testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Reshaping the Military, February 16, 2017.
    Available online

    U.S. Department of Defense, Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2016, April 26, 2016.

    U.S. Department of Defense, Asia-Pacific Maritime Security Strategy: Achieving U.S. National Security Objectives in a Changing Environment, 2015.

    U.S. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review 2014, Washington, D.C., March 2014.
    PDF download

    U.S. Department of Defense, Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense, January 5, 2012.

    United States Navy, A Design for Maintaining Maritime Superiority, version 1.0, January 2016.

    U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence, The PLA Navy: New Capabilities and Missions for the 21st Century, April 2015.

    Colin Willett, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Multilateral Affairs Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, statement before the House Armed Services Committee Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific, “South China Sea Maritime Disputes,” Washington, D.C., July 7, 2016.