Based on a study originally completed under a grant to IFPA from the Smith Richardson Foundation, this book addresses major political and security challenges for the United States if Iran acquires a nuclear weapons capability. The co-authors are Dr. Jacquelyn K. Davis and Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr. It is scheduled for publication by Columbia University Press this fall.

Rather than focus on Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capabilities, this volume assumes the worst, and a defensive, aggressive, and unstable Iran is already in the possession of a nuclear arsenal. How should the U.S. handle this threat, and can it deter the use of such weapons? Exploring three potential scenarios in which Iran becomes a nuclear state, this volume breaks down the political, strategic, and operational challenges facing the U.S. in a post-Cold War world.

The volume concentrates on the type of nuclear capability Iran might develop; the conditions under which Iran might resort to threatened or actual weapons use; the extent to which Iran’s military strategy and declaratory policy might embolden Iran and its proxies to pursue more aggressive policies in the region and vis-à-vis the United States; and Iran’s ability to transfer nuclear materials to others within and outside of the region, possibly sparking a nuclear cascade. Drawing on recent post-Cold War deterrence theory, the authors consider Iran’s nuclear ambitions as they relate to its foreign policy objectives, domestic politics, and role in the Islamic world, and they suggest specific approaches the U.S. can undertake to improve its defense and deterrence planning.

Jacquelyn K. Davis is executive vice president of the Institute.

Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr., is president of the Institute and Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of International Security Studies at the Fletcher School, Tufts University.

original study

Report on a January 19, 2011, workshop that brought together approximately fifty prominent policymakers and experts from the United States, the People’s Republic of China, and the Republic of Korea for in-depth discussions focusing on the current security situation on and surrounding the Korean Peninsula and prospects for greater cooperation among the three nations represented at the workshop.

• report (8.63 MB)
• workshop details

The conference report from the 38th IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy, "Air, Space, and Cyberspace Power in the 21st-Century," addresses the defining issues for the U.S. Air Force (USAF) in the twenty-first-century security environment as well as the planning, operational, and investment challenges facing the USAF in the years ahead. These include balancing legacy missions with irregular warfare demands; determining where the USAF can take risks in platform modernization and how best to assign acquisition priorities in a constrained budget environment; identifying and promoting new mission areas and service competencies; and articulating an up-to-date strategy for enabling and supporting twenty-first-century security planning that facilitates combatant-commander security cooperation and joint and Allied/coalition operations, and contributing as well to broader interagency requirements.
The conference was held on January 20–21, 2010, in Washington, D.C. Building on previous conferences in this series, the 38th IFPA-Fletcher National Security Conference brought together a unique mix of expertise from government and the private sector; from the civilian and military communities; from think tanks, industry, and academia; and from the United States and abroad.

• report (3.45 MB)
• post-conference website

Among the potentially contentious issues requiring focused attention and innovative thinking by the Obama administration are those relating to the future of U.S. deterrence planning. Members of the administration are already on record as favoring a significant unilateral reduction in U.S. nuclear weapons. Some are calling for the ratification of a Comprehensive (Nuclear) Test Ban Treaty; others are questioning proposals to update the U.S. nuclear infrastructure and modernize the U.S. nuclear warhead inventory to make American deterrent forces better able to meet and counter legacy and emerging deterrence threats and challenges. This paper provides an assessment of the future of U.S. nuclear planning and offers new ideas about deterrence in the dramatically changed twenty-first-century security planning environment.

• report (1.67 MB)

We need only ponder the problems posed by an Iran without nuclear weapons to begin to assess the challenges of an Iran in possession of an operational nuclear weapons capability. Considering the issue from the perspective of three different heuristic models of Iran’s proliferation — a defensive Iran, an aggressive Iran, and an unstable Iran — this report assesses the political, strategic, and operational implications of Iran’s attainment of a nuclear weapons capability. It assumes that absent strong, unified, multilateral action to impose a strict sanctions regime, a United Nations Security Council-approved embargo, or other tightly enforced trade and financial restrictions, current policies will not suffice to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear weapons state.

• report (6.81 MB)
• project details

This report summarizes and elaborates upon discussions held at an IFPA workshop by the same name held on July 30, 2008, and organized in support of GEN Bantz Craddock, USA, then SACEUR and commander of USEUCOM. The report discusses emerging Allied concerns over a more assertive Russian security posture, and discusses potential opportunities for USEUCOM-led security cooperation in the greater Black Sea and Caucasus region as a way to enhance stability. Against the backdrop of the Russian-Georgian conflict (which erupted shortly after the workshop was held), the report also offers recommendations for appropriate U.S. and Allied responses.

This 2008 monograph presents the findings of a three-year multilateral research project that explores ways to bridge differences among the parties and to develop a common approach to North Korean nuclearization. It explores the strengths and weaknesses of the six-party process and offers practical solutions to the numerous implementation challenges regarding nuclear dismantlement and verification, and coordinated economic assistance and investment.

• available for purchase ($25)
• project details

This report analyzes the perspectives of NATO and SHAPE officials on the proper scope, focus, and timing of future adjustments to the Alliance’s 1999 Strategic Concept to bring it into closer accord with current and emerging strategic trends and priorities. The report also evaluates potential revisions to NATO’s deterrence posture (including with respect to forward-deployed nuclear weapons), and examines emerging requirements for Allied counter-proliferation planning, “out-of-area” missions (such as Afghanistan ), and civil-military coordination to protect Allied territory and critical infrastructure. Based on these assessments, recommendations are made for U.S. European Command (USEUCOM) planning priorities.

IFPA completed and distributed this summary report on a January 2007 workshop organized in support of U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM).The focus of the workshop was a discussion of the ideological roots of Islamist extremism as a basis for countering such ideology. In addition, it identified and assessed the elements of a national strategy to defeat radical Islamist threats and addressed measures to promote democratization in the region. Attendees at the workshop ncluded experts and scholars specializing in various aspects of Islamic extremism, as well as USCENTCOM Deputy Commander VADM Dave Nichols, other senior command representatives, and high- ranking U.S. officials.

• report (1.86 MB)

IFPA completed this report as part of an ongoing study of radical Islam and its implications for the Long War against terrorism. It provides a comprehensive assessment of the ideological underpinnings of radical Islam and how these ideologies seem to be fueling terrorist and insurgent activities, including suicide bombing operations and other asymmetric strategies. Emphasis is placed on the effect of these activities in U.S. Central Command’s (USCENTCOM’s) area of responsibility, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan. This study also includes updated analyses and recommendations derived from a workshop on suicide bombers held in support of USCENTCOM earlier in 2006.

• report (14.4 MB)

Report of a workshop held on February 17, 2006,in Honolulu, Hawaii. Government officials and foreign-policy experts from the United States, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Australia gathered for a one-day workshop to discuss the six-party talks and to explore options for building regional capacity to implement a denuclearization agreement with North Korea, if and when one is concluded.

• workshop report (1.50 MB)
• project details

This report is based on a workshop of the same title convened by the Institute on February 9, 2006, in Washington, D.C., with the generous support of the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation. It assesses the extent to which Cold War lessons in the struggle against Communism have relevance to the war against radical Salafist ideologies and to efforts to establish democracies in the wider Muslim world. The report examines the prospects for democracy in the area spanning North Africa, the Middle East, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Both the workshop and the report contributed to IFPA's ongoing research focused on post-conflict reconstruction and stability operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and, at the same time, to efforts to inform and help shape U.S. government democratization efforts and public diplomacy strategies.

• workshop report (249 KB)
• project details

• report (1.47 MB)

• executive summary (7.42 MB)

• report (2 MB)

• report (968 KB)
• project details

This monograph, the result of a project completed in 2004, examines the military and operational requirements that could be anticipated to drive U.S. security planning for operations in Central Asia and adjacent regions over the next ten to twenty years.

• monograph (2.53 MB)

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• report (1.24 MB)
• project details

• report (1.24 MB)
• project details

• report (543 KB)

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• report (3.18 MB)

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On June 5-6, 2013, the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA) and the International Security Studies Program of The Fletcher School of Tufts University will convene a high-level conference in Washington, D.C., in support of U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM). “Positioning Special Operations Forces for Global Challenges” will be held at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in downtown Washington, D.C. (1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW). This will be the fortieth IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy, in a series widely recognized as one of the nation’s premier strategic dialogues.

• conference website

IFPA collaborated with the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies to organize the seventh NATO SOF Coordination Centre (NSCC) Senior Steering Group (SSG) meeting, a workshop on Somalia and future requirements for counter-piracy and counter-terrorism planning. The workshop explored options for dealing with piracy and its potential use by al-Shabab to destabilize Somalia and its regional partners, and to understand more precisely the possibilities for and/or constraints on an expanded use of NATO, the European Union (EU), or national forces to support the African Union mission in Somalia (AUMIS), to shore up the position of the Transnational Federal Government (TFG) in and possibly beyond Mogadishu, and to empower regional forces in their fight against violent extremists on the African continent. A related workshop objective was to explore the possibilities for enhancing and broadening intelligence collaboration on counter-piracy and counter-terrorism planning between NATO and the EU, and how such collaboration could enable NATO SOF to position themselves more effectively should the Alliance’s political leaders decide to support a more forward-leaning position on Somalia and the Horn of Africa, either to facilitate World Food Program deliveries or to employ the use of force, under a new UNSC mandate, to target jihadi training camps, pirate bases, or other related logistical infrastructure on the ground in Somalia. 

• meeting agenda
• project details
• list of all SAG/SSG meetings

The fifth SSG meeting took place in Krakow, Poland, on May 24–26, 2011, in conjunction with the NATO SOF Commanders' Conference and the dedication of the new Polish SOF Headquarters. The NATO SOF Commanders' Conference featured a panel presentation by four SSG members, focusing on lessons-learned from Afghanistan and recent operations. The four SSG members who participated on this panel — Dr. Jacquelyn K. Davis, Dr. Rob de Wijk, Commodore Lars Wille-Jorgensen, and Dr. Andrzej Karkoszka — || had each traveled to Afghanistan with members of the NSHQ and met with ISAF and national SOF teams to hear their perspectives on lessons-learned and the way ahead for NATO SOF planning, training and education, and capabilities development. This meeting also featured the participation of senior Polish defense officials and leaders from U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM), including Admiral Eric Olson.

• slides (896 KB)
• project details

• report (12.2 MB)
• post-conference website

A one-day trilateral dialogue organized by IFPA, the Institute for Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), and the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) and supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

• workshop details
• workshop agenda
• workshop report

This meeting was held in Mons, Belgium, on November 21-23, 2010, in conjunction with the NSHQ's formal activation ceremony and a NATO SOF commanders' conference. At this meeting, Dr. Jamie Shea, then of the Secretary General's Private Office, reported on the results of NATO's Lisbon Summit and highlighted the creation of a new NATO directorate focused on emerging security challenges (where he will now work as its Deputy Assistant Secretary General). The SSG also considered ways to boost support for SOF forces, planning, and capabilities in national capitals and discussed new mission areas, emanating from NATO's New Strategic Concept, for NATO SOF.

• project details
• list of all SAG/SSG meetings

SAG members discussed models for the creation of a NATO SOF aviation element and considered new mission areas for which NATO SOF capabilities might be tasked.

• project details
• list of all SAG/SSG meetings

• report (3.45 MB)
• post-conference website

Organized by IFPA and the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, with the support of the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA).

• focus report (8.63 MB)
• workshop details
• workshop agenda
• workshop participants

The second meeting of the NATO SOF Coordination Centre (NSCC) Senior Advisory Group (SAG). held in conjunction with a larger NATO SOF Symposium entitled "NATO Special Operations Forces (SOF) – Key to Mission Success at the Strategic Level." At this second meeting, SSG members discussed implications of the new NATO Strategic Concept for SOF employment and mission planning, as well as opportunities for enhanced intelligence sharing and the operational development of Alliance SOF.

• project details
• list of all SAG/SSG meetings

The first meeting of the NATO SOF Coordination Centre (NSCC) Senior Advisory Group (SAG). SAG members were introduced to the NSCC, given briefings about its capabilities, personnel, mission-taskings, and its role in operational planning for Afghanistan.

• project details
• list of all SAG/SSG meetings

The 37th IFPA-Fletcher conference on national security strategy and policy. Building on previous conferences in this series, the 37th IFPA-Fletcher National Security Conference provided a timely, high-level forum for presentation and analysis of the U.S. Navy’s New Maritime Strategy. It brought together a unique mix of expertise from government and the private sector; from the civilian and military communities; from think tanks, industry, and academia; and from the United States and abroad.

• report (13 MB)

• report (737 KB)

Government officials and foreign-policy experts from the United States, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Australia gathered for a one-day workshop to discuss the six-party talks and to explore options for building regional capacity to implement a denuclearization agreement with North Korea, if and when one is concluded.

• project report & workshop summary (1.5 MB)
• project details

This workshop explored the extent to which lessons learned from the Cold War era struggle against Communism have relevance to the war against radical Salafist ideologies and to efforts to establish democracies in the wider Muslim world.

• report (249 KB)

• report (3.8 MB)

• report (1.47 MB) ||
• details

• report (2 MB)

• report (2.76 MB)

• report (1.24 MB)
• project details

As part of its research and dialogue efforts focused on Asia-Pacific security, IFPA co-sponsored this senior-level conference in Taipei, Republic of China (ROC). The conference was organized in cooperation with the Center for Taiwan Defense and Strategic Studies, the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies oat Tam Kang University, and the ROC's National Defense University, all in Taipei, and with the Centre for Defence and International Security Studies of Lancaster University in the United Kingdom. The conference provided an opportunity for in-depth discussion of the potential role of airpower in undergirding the defense of Taiwan, with discussion focusing on the cross-strait balance of power as a whole and with respect to air power assets in particular, air power modernization efforts now underway in both the ROC and the People's Republic of China (PRC), the role of air and missile defense systems in ensuring ROC security, and emerging priorities for the ROC Air Force in the years ahead.
Both before and after the conference, IFPA and other U.S. speakers and commentators were able to meet and exchange views with a very senior group of ROC officials, including President Chen Shui-bian, Defense Minister Tang Yiau-ming, Legislative Yuan Vice President Chiang Pin-Kung, Deputy Foreign Minister Kau Ying-mao, National Security Bureau Director Tsai Chao-Ming, National Security Council Secretary General Chou I-Jen, and Secretary General Chan Chun-Hsiung of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party.

• report (1.95 MB)

• report (1.24 MB)
• project details

• workshop agenda
• workshop participants
• project details

• report (2.85 MB)

• workshop summary report (543 KB)

• report (3.18 MB)

Testimony before the Emerging Threats and Capabilities Subcommittee, Committee on Armed Services, House of Representatives, U.S. Congress hearing.

• hearing video
• Dr. Davis's testimony

• article available online