Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.

Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr., is president of the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis. He is also Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of International Security Studies at the Fletcher School, Tufts University. He is an authority on issues of U.S. national security policy.

research projects
publications
conferences & workshops
articles & presentations

Support to the Defense Department, Combatant Commands, and Military Service Leadership

This is an ongoing project for the Department of Defense (DoD), for which the Institute provides detailed policy reports and organizes high-level workshops on critical issues of national security for DoD, combatant command (COCOM), and military service leaderships.

project details

The Democracy in Latin America Seminar Series: Challenges of Radical Populism

In association with the Hudson Institute, IFPA has examined radical populism in Latin America in order to provide policy recommendations to leaders of government and civil society in the Hemisphere to help counter anti-democratic forces and authoritarianism.

project details

Space and U.S. Security: A Net Assessment

Although the United States is the dominant player in space, a growing number of countries are accessing space for both military and commercial purposes, challenging U.S. preeminence.

project report (5.96 MB) || project details

Independent Working Group on Missile Defense

As part of the IFPA missile defense program, the Independent Working Group (IWG) on Post-ABM Treaty Missile Defense and the Space Relationship is exploring missile defense architectures that include space-based systems.

report (7.04 MB) || June 23, 2009, roundtable || project details

Iran with Nuclear Weapons: Anticipating the Consequences for U.S. Security

Based on the assumption, unpalatable as it may seem, that a nuclear Iran is all but inevitable, this project, completed in 2008, focuses on three critically important questions.

project report (6.81 MB) || project details

Strengthening Forces for Democracy in the Middle East: Lessons from the Past and Strategies for the Future

This project was completed in 2006 as part of IFPA's ongoing work on democratization. The project's focus was democratic transformation in the Middle East and Central Asia.

project report (249 KB) || project details

North American Homeland Security and Defense: Enhancing U.S. Joint Planning and Cooperation with Canada and Mexico in the War against Terrorism

This project, completed in early 2006, explored options to increase homeland defense/security cooperation between the United States and Canada and between the United States and Mexico.

U.S.-Canada workshop report (2.34 MB) || U.S.-Mexico workshop report (673 KB)

Security Dynamics in Southeastern Europe

IFPA and the Kokkalis Foundation (Athens, Greece) collaborated on a project to examine the principal strategic-military challenges in this uncertain and evolving region and to assess their implications for the bilateral U.S.-Greek relationship and broader Alliance relations. Three volumes were produced:

Greek-Turkish Relations in the Era of Globalization, 2001
New Approaches to Balkan Studies, 2003
available for purchase ($35)
Defense Reform, Modernization & Military Cooperation in Southeastern Europe, 2004
available for purchase ($35)

Missile Defense and Counterproliferation Studies

Recognizing that over the first decade of the twenty-first century the United States and its allies will face a proliferation of precision weapons and missiles in the hands of adversaries, IFPA undertook several projects between 1997 and 2002 to assess U.S. and Allied missile defense and counterproliferation policy and technology.

Enhancing Joint Crisis Management Capabilities: Issues and Policy Options for Japan-U.S. Cooperation

In this joint two-year study completed in 2002, IFPA and the Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP) examined issues and policy options on joint crisis management between Japan and the United States, exploring how Tokyo and Washington might better prepare for and respond to an array of crisis scenarios ranging from traditional security threats to emerging challenges.

Development of a Post-Cold War Academic Curriculum

Launched in 1994, this project explores post-Cold War instructional approaches in professional military educational institutions, particularly with regard to the security ramifications of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) proliferation and deterrence.

The Marine Corps: America's Expeditionary Force in Readiness: 39th IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy; Conference report; July 2011, 107 pp; report (3.45 MB) || post-conference website
Air, Space, and Cyberspace Power in the 21st-Century: 38th IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy; Conference report; September 2010
Description: The conference report from the 38th IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy, "Air, Space, and Cyberspace Power in the 21st-Century," addresses the defining issues for the U.S. Air Force (USAF) in the twenty-first-century security environment as well as the planning, operational, and investment challenges facing the USAF in the years ahead. These include balancing legacy missions with irregular warfare demands; determining where the USAF can take risks in platform modernization and how best to assign acquisition priorities in a constrained budget environment; identifying and promoting new mission areas and service competencies; and articulating an up-to-date strategy for enabling and supporting twenty-first-century security planning that facilitates combatant-commander security cooperation and joint and Allied/coalition operations, and contributing as well to broader interagency requirements.
The conference was held on January 20–21, 2010, in Washington, D.C. Building on previous conferences in this series, the 38th IFPA-Fletcher National Security Conference brought together a unique mix of expertise from government and the private sector; from the civilian and military communities; from think tanks, industry, and academia; and from the United States and abroad.; report (3.45 MB) || post-conference website
Countering the EMP Threat: The Role of Missile Defense: White paper by Henry Cooper and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.; July 2010, 12 pp
Description: Among the threats facing the United States are short-range ballistic missiles launched from vessels such as freighters, tankers, or container ships off our shores to detonate a warhead that could have catastrophic Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) consequences for the United States. After discussing the potential for a successful EMP attack, this report suggests what can (and should) be done to counter such an attack by using existing and near-term missile defense capabilities, beginning immediately.; report(2 MB) || project details
Frequently Asked Questions about Ballistic Missile Defense: A Guide: The Independent Working Group; May 2010, 23 pp
Description: This guide is based on information contained in the 2009 Independent Working Group Report entitled Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, and the Twenty-First Century. The purpose of the guide is to address the most often asked questions and to provide information about missile defense.; guide || project details
A New NATO, Euro-Atlantic Security, and the Greek-American Partnership: June 2009
Description: Report on a high-level conference convened April 28-29, 2009, by the Defense Analysis Institute of the Hellenic Ministry of National Defense, the Konstantinos G. Karamanlis Foundation, and the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA) with official NATO sponsorship. As NATO marks its sixtieth anniversary, it faces enduring questions about strategic focus, operational priorities, military requirements, and collaborative ties with partner nations and other international institutions. Some of these questions were addressed at the April 2009 NATO summit in Strasbourg-Kehl, but a broader and ongoing dialogue will be essential as the Alliance moves forward in the years ahead; this conference addressed and contributed to that process.; conference report (1.44 MB) || NATO 60th anniversary events
Updating U.S. Deterrence Concepts and Operational Planning: Reassuring Allies, Deterring Legacy Threats, and Dissuading Nuclear "Wannabes": Jacquelyn K. Davis, Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Charles M. Perry, and James L. Schoff; February 2009, 22 pp
Description: Among the potentially contentious issues requiring focused attention and innovative thinking by the Obama administration are those relating to the future of U.S. deterrence planning. Members of the administration are already on record as favoring a significant unilateral reduction in U.S. nuclear weapons. Some are calling for the ratification of a Comprehensive (Nuclear) Test Ban Treaty; others are questioning proposals to update the U.S. nuclear infrastructure and modernize the U.S. nuclear warhead inventory to make American deterrent forces better able to meet and counter legacy and emerging deterrence threats and challenges. This paper provides an assessment of the future of U.S. nuclear planning and offers new ideas about deterrence in the dramatically changed twenty-first-century security planning environment.; report (1.67 MB)
The Space and U.S. Security Net Assessment: Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.; January 2009, 83 pp
Description: This report, the product of a year-long study effort, has been prepared as a contribution to the discussion about the future role of the United States in space. It surveys the current status of U.S. space activities and draws comparisons with other countries that have developed space programs in recent decades. It projects major trends into a ten- to twenty-year timeframe to identify factors that may have important positive or negative implications for the position of the United States relative to other nations in the next decade. Because of the inherently dual-use nature of space technology and the growing role of the commercial sector, this net assessment takes a broad view of space, encompassing space technologies for military uses and for commercial purposes. It underscores the mutually important role of space in U.S. national security and in the U.S. economy.; report (5.96 MB) || project details
Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, and the Twenty-first Century: The Independent Working Group; January 2009
Description: This report provides an assessment of missile defense requirements beyond the limited ground-based system currently being deployed, together with opportunities to benefit from existing and new technologies. It presents proven technology options that should form the basis for deployment of an innovative missile defense that draws upon the legacy of technologies developed during the Strategic Defense Initiative program of the Reagan administration and the first Bush administration. The report lays out the necessary vision to exploit existing and future technologies, with space as an indispensable part of missile defense.; report (7.04 MB) || project details
Iran with Nuclear Weapons: Anticipating the Consequences for U.S. Policy: Jacquelyn K. Davis and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.; September 2008, 93 pp
Description: We need only ponder the problems posed by an Iran without nuclear weapons to begin to assess the challenges of an Iran in possession of an operational nuclear weapons capability. Considering the issue from the perspective of three different heuristic models of Iran’s proliferation—a defensive Iran, an aggressive Iran, and an unstable Iran—this report assesses the political, strategic, and operational implications of Iran’s attainment of a nuclear weapons capability. It assumes that absent strong, unified, multilateral action to impose a strict sanctions regime, a United Nations Security Council-approved embargo, or other tightly enforced trade and financial restrictions, current policies will not suffice to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear weapons state.; report (6.81 MB) || project details
A New Maritime Strategy for 21st-Century National Security: 37th IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy; February 2007; conference report (1.27 MB)
Implementing the New Triad: Nuclear and Non-Nuclear Forces in 21st-Century Deterrence: 36th IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security and Policy:; January 2005, 122 pp; conference report (3.77 MB)
The Mexican-U.S. Partnership: Enhancing Our Common Security: January 2005, 35 pp; workshop report (673 KB)
The Canada-U.S. Partnership: Enhancing Our Common Security: January 2005, 35 pp; workshop report (2.34 MB)
Nuclear Energy and Science for the 21st Century: Atoms for Peace Plus 50: January 2004, 74 pp; report (2.4 MB)
Security Planning and Military Transformation after Iraqi Freedom: 34th IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy; December 2003; report (2.76 MB)
The Strategic Plan for Safeguarding the Commonwealth of Massachusetts against Terrorist and Related Threats: Prepared for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts by; January 2003, 43 pp; report (1.01 MB)
National Security for a New Era: Focusing National Power: Final Report from the 31st Annual IFPA-Fletcher Security Conference; November 2001, 105 pp; report (3.18 MB)
Greek-Turkish Relations in the Era of Globalization: Edited by Dimitris Keridis and Dimitrios Triantaphyllou; November 2001, out of print
Expeditionary Solutions for a Gordian World: Final Report from the IFPA-Fletcher-USMC Security Conference; March 2001; available for purchase ($1 plus shipping)
National Strategies and Capabilities for a Changing World: Report from the IFPA-Fletcher Conference 2000; January 2001, 128 pp; report (3.18 MB)
Contending Theories of International Relations: Co-author, fifth edition, New York: Addison Wesley Longman; January 2001
NATO and Southeastern Europe: Security Issues for the Early 21st Century: Edited by Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr., and Dimitris Keridis; June 2000, 248 pp; available for purchase ($24.95)
Final Report on Strategic Responsiveness: Early and Continuous Joint Effectiveness-Across the Spectrum: April 2000; report (3.18 MB)
European Security Institutions: Ready for the 21st Century?: IFPA-Fletcher School Project Team; January 2000, 248 pp; available for purchase ($15)
The Role of Naval Forces in 21st-Century Operations:: Edited by Richard H. Schultz and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.; January 2000, 284 pp; available for purchase ($35)
United States as a 21st Century Aerospace Power: December 1999, 35 pp; available for purchase ($1 plus shipping)
Security in Southeastern Europe and the U.S.-Greek Relationship: Edited by Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr., and Dimitris Keridis; June 1997, 208 pp; available for purchase ($10)
War in the Information Age: Co-edited by Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.; January 1997
Security Strategy and Missile Defense: Edited by Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.; December 1995; available for purchase ($10)
Special Operations Forces: Roles and Missions in the Aftermath of the Cold War: Co-edited by Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.; July 1995; available for purchase ($10)
Long-Range Bombers and the Role of Airpower in the New Century: Charles M. Perry, Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr., and Joseph C. Conway; June 1995, 96 pp; available for purchase ($10)
Taiwan in a Transformed World: Edited by David Tawei Lee and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr; January 1995, 140 pp; available for purchase ($10)
Taiwan in a Changing Global Setting: Workshop report; July 1994, 75 pp; available for purchase ($1 plus shipping)
Pacific Partners: Canada and the United States: Charles F. Doran, Michael K. Hawes, Brian L. Job, Rank Langdon, and Douglas Ross; January 1994, 129 pp; available for purchase ($10)
Proliferation, Theater Missile Defense, and U.S. Security: January 1994, 44 pp, out of print
Transatlantic Relations in the 1990s: The Emergence of New Security Architectures: Hans van de Broek, Pierre-Etienne Champenois, Willem van Eekelen, André Erdös, Lynn Hansen, Gebhardt von Moltke, Jerzy Nowak, Janusz Onyszkiewicz, Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr., and Rob de Wijk; June 1993, 92 pp; available for purchase ($11.95)
Preventing Instability in Post-Cold War Europe: The Institutional Responses of NATO, the WEU, the EC, the CSCE, and the UN: Report from the Seventh International Roundtable Conference on NATO; July 1992, 58 pp; available for purchase ($1 plus shipping)
Naval Arms Control and Pacific Security in the 1990s: Workshop report; January 1992, 25 pp; available for purchase ($1 plus shipping)
Change in Europe and the Emergence of New Strategic Priorities: Restructuring Security Arrangements for the 1990s: Report from the Sixth International Roundtable Conference on NATO,; December 1991, 45 pp; available for purchase ($1 plus shipping)

39th IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy: The Marine Corps—America's Expeditionary Force in Readiness: April 14 – April 15, 2011, Washington, D.C.; conference report (12.2 MB) || post-conference website
The Air Force's Nuclear Mission and the Future of Deterrence Planning: June 11, 2009, Washington, D.C., in support of the chief of staff, U.S. Air Force
Terrorists, Drug Traffickers, and Gangs in Latin America: Undermining Democracy: June 9, 2010, Washington, D.C., in association with the Hudson Institute and part of the Democracy in Latin America seminar series; about the seminar || project details
38th IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy: Air, Space, and Cyberspace Power in the 21st-Century: January 20 – January 21, 2010, Washington, D.C.; report (3.45 MB) || post-conference website
Challenges to Democracy in Latin America: The Case of Venezuela: December 3, 2009, Washington, D.C., in association with the Hudson Institute and part of the Democracy in Latin America seminar series; about the seminar || project details
Populist Threats to Democracy in Central America: September 22, 2009, Washington, D.C., in association with the Hudson Institute and part of the Democracy in Latin America seminar series; seminar details || project details
Emerging Threats and Homeland/National Security: The Role of Missile Defense: September 22 – June 23, 2009, Washington, D.C., Independent Working Group roundtable; roundtable details || streaming audio || project details
A New NATO, Euro-Atlantic Security, and the Greek-American Partnership: April 28 – April 29, 2009, Washington, D.C.; report (1.44 MB) || conference details || NATO 60th anniversary events
Bolivia: A Country Divided: April 1, 2009, Washington, D.C., in association with the Hudson Institute and part of the Democracy in Latin America seminar series; about the seminar || project details
Democracy in Central America: How Strong?: February 19, 2009, Washington, D.C., in association with the Hudson Institute and part of the Democracy in Latin America seminar series; seminar details || project details
Latin America's Radical Populism Challenges: What's Next for a New U.S. Administration?: October 8, 2008, Washington, D.C., in association with the Hudson Institute and part of the Democracy in Latin America seminar series; about the seminar || project details
The Faces of Radical Populism in Latin America: April 3, 2008, Washington, D.C., in association with the Hudson Institute and part of the Democracy in Latin America seminar series; about the seminar || project details
Radical Populism in Latin America: November 6, 2007, Washington, D.C., in association with the Hudson Institute and part of the Democracy in Latin America seminar series; about the seminar || project details
37th IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy: A New Maritime Strategy for 21st-Century National Security: September 26 – September 27, 2007, Washington, D.C.
Description: The 37th IFPA-Fletcher conference on national security strategy and policy. Building on previous conferences in this series, the 37th IFPA-Fletcher National Security Conference provided a timely, high-level forum for presentation and analysis of the U.S. Navy’s New Maritime Strategy. It brought together a unique mix of expertise from government and the private sector; from the civilian and military communities; from think tanks, industry, and academia; and from the United States and abroad.; report (13 MB)
Leftism and Populism in Today’s Latin America: Is Chavismo Contagious?: July 9, 2007, Washington, D.C., in association with the Hudson Institute and part of the Democracy in Latin America seminar series; about the seminar || project details
The Way Ahead with Iran: A Libya in Waiting, a Nuclear Pariah, or Something in Between?: August 1, 2006, Washington, D.C., in support of the under secretary of state for arms control and international security
Strengthening Forces for Democracy in the Middle East: Lessons from the Past and Strategies for the Future: February 9, 2006, Washington, D.C.
Description: This workshop explored the extent to which lessons learned from the Cold War era struggle against Communism have relevance to the war against radical Salafist ideologies and to efforts to establish democracies in the wider Muslim world.; report (249 KB)
36th IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security and Policy: Implementing the New Triad: Nuclear and Non-Nuclear Forces in 21st-Century Deterrence: December 14 – December 15, 2005, Washington, D.C.; report (3.8 MB)
Mexican-U.S. Partnership: Enhancing Our Common Security: December 2, 2005, Washington, D.C.; report (673 KB)
Canada - U.S. Partnership: Enhancing Our Common Security: March 14, 2005, Washington, D.C.; report (2.34 MB)
The 35th Annual IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy: Planning for and Responding to Threats to the U.S. Homeland: October 28 – October 29, 2004, Washington D.C.; report (2 MB)
The 34th Annual IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security and Policy: Security Planning and Military Transformation after Iraqi Freedom: December 2 – December 3, 2003, Washington D.C.; report (2.76 MB)
Nuclear Energy and Science for the 21st Century: Atoms for Peace Plus 50: October 22, 2003, Washington D.C.; report (2.4 MB)
Options for Handling the Challenges Associated with Iran’s WMD Programs: June 25, 2003, Washington, D.C., in support of the National Security Council and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency
Taiwan Security and Air Power: January 9, 2003, Washington D.C.
Description: As part of its research and dialogue efforts focused on Asia-Pacific security, IFPA co-sponsored this senior-level conference in Taipei, Republic of China (ROC). The conference was organized in cooperation with the Center for Taiwan Defense and Strategic Studies, the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies oat Tam Kang University, and the ROC's National Defense University, all in Taipei, and with the Centre for Defence and International Security Studies of Lancaster University in the United Kingdom. The conference provided an opportunity for in-depth discussion of the potential role of airpower in undergirding the defense of Taiwan, with discussion focusing on the cross-strait balance of power as a whole and with respect to air power assets in particular, air power modernization efforts now underway in both the ROC and the People's Republic of China (PRC), the role of air and missile defense systems in ensuring ROC security, and emerging priorities for the ROC Air Force in the years ahead.
Both before and after the conference, IFPA and other U.S. speakers and commentators were able to meet and exchange views with a very senior group of ROC officials, including President Chen Shui-bian, Defense Minister Tang Yiau-ming, Legislative Yuan Vice President Chiang Pin-Kung, Deputy Foreign Minister Kau Ying-mao, National Security Bureau Director Tsai Chao-Ming, National Security Council Secretary General Chou I-Jen, and Secretary General Chan Chun-Hsiung of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party.
The 33rd IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy: October 16 – October 17, 2002, Washington, D.C.; report (1.95 MB)
The 32nd IFPA-Fletcher Conference on National Security Strategy and Policy: Meeting the Homeland Security Challenge: March 25 – March 26, 2002, Washington D.C.
IFPA Fletcher Conference: National Security for a New Era: Focusing National Power: November 14 – November 15, 2001, Washington D.C.; report (3.18 MB)

A Fiscal 2012 Missile Defense Agenda: By the Independent Working Group, February 14, 2011; article (219 KB) || project details
A Dangerous Gap in Our Defenses? An EMP Attack Is a Terrible Threat That Could Be Countered Now: Op-ed by Henry F. Cooper and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.; National Review Online, December 14, 2010; op-ed (216 KB) || project details
China-U.S. Strategic Stability: Speech by Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.; Prepared for Nuclear Order — Build or Break, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C., April 6, 2009; lecture (51 KB)
Boost-Phase Missile Defense: Talk by Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.; Boost-Phase Missile Defense: Present Challenges, Future Prospects, seminar at the Capitol Hill Club, Washington, D.C., April 3, 2009; lecture (43 KB)
An Iran with Nuclear Weapons: Lecture by Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.; Foreign Policy Challenges for the New Administration: Iran and the Middle East, seminar at the Fares Center for Eastern Mediterranean Studies, Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts, March 6, 2009; Dr. Pfaltzgraff also served as panel moderator; talk (38 KB)
The Shoot-Down of the Failing NRO Satellite: Implications for ICBM Missile Defense: Speech by Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.; Capitol Hill Forum on Missile Defense: Implications of the February 2008 Satellite Intercept, Washington, D.C., October 9, 2008; speech (44 KB)
Crisis Management: Looking Back and Looking Ahead: Keynote address by Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.; Athena 08, sponsored by Defense Analysis Institute of the Hellenic Ministry of National Defence, at the Athena 08 Crisis Management International Conference, Athens, Greece, July 2, 2008.; speech (62 KB)
Collaboration with NATO on Missile Defense: Speech by Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.,; Conference on Missile Defence after the Bucharest NATO Summit: European and American Perspectives, Prague, the Czech Republic, May 5, 2008; speech (37 KB)
Space and Missile Defense: Speech by Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.; To the Federalist Society and held at the National Press Club, Washington, D.C., June 20, 2007; speech (35 KB)
Weapons in Space: Speech by Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.; To the Boston Council on Foreign Relations, June 18, 2007; speech (40 KB)

The Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis

Innovative strategies for new security challenges

Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.